195 Kinch Rd · President, PA 16301

$74,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 289 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot $117/sqft · 44% above area Est $52k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in the serene river side community of Henry’s Bend, this cozy 3-bedroom cottage offers a unique opportunity to enjoy nature, recreation, and peaceful living. Community boat launch on the Allegheny River available, this home is perfect for outdoor lovers looking to fish, paddle, or simply relax by the water. Thoughtfully cared for over the years, you'll find a warm, functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a kitchen equipped with essential appliances. Outside, the spacious lot offers plenty of room for gardens, gatherings, or storing your outdoor gear. Whether you're searching for a weekend retreat or a quiet place to call home, 195 Kinch Rd is a gem in a hidden corner of Venango County.

Key facts

• River community
• Gardens gatherings
• Spacious lot

Tags

• RIVER COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH
• SPACIOUS LOT
• GARDENS GATHERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Forest Area SD (rural): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #415 of 658 in PA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Venango County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($515 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Venango County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,588
• List price: $74,500
• Delta: 44.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $30,901
• Equity at exit: $30,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $78,885
• Equity at exit: $43,892

Cash invested: $20,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16301

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$391
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $591

Max offer price $74,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $416	+0% $395	+5% $374	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $352	+0% $395	+5% $438	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $414	base $395	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,625
• Closing costs: $2,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,500 Active 289 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,500 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,500 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,500 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,500 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,500 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,500 Active 275 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,500 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,500 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,500 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,500 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $74,500 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Tucked away in the serene river side community of Henry’s Bend, this cozy 3-bedroom cottage offers a unique opportunity to enjoy nature, recreation, and peaceful living. Community boat launch on the Allegheny River available, this home is perfect for outdoor lovers looking to fish, paddle, or simply relax by the water. Thoughtfully cared for over the years, you'll find a warm, functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a kitchen equipped with essential appliances. Outside, the spacious lot offers plenty of room for gardens, gatherings, or storing your outdoor gear. Whether you're searching for a weekend retreat or a quiet place to call home, 195 Kinch Rd is a gem in a hidden corner of Venango County.

17. 2025-09-25
    price $77,500 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Tucked away in the serene river side community of Henry’s Bend, this cozy 3-bedroom cottage offers a unique opportunity to enjoy nature, recreation, and peaceful living. Community boat launch on the Allegheny River available, this home is perfect for outdoor lovers looking to fish, paddle, or simply relax by the water. Thoughtfully cared for over the years, you'll find a warm, functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a kitchen equipped with essential appliances. Outside, the spacious lot offers plenty of room for gardens, gatherings, or storing your outdoor gear. Whether you're searching for a weekend retreat or a quiet place to call home, 195 Kinch Rd is a gem in a hidden corner of Venango County.

18. 2025-09-04
    listed $80,000 Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Tucked away in the serene river side community of Henry’s Bend, this cozy 3-bedroom cottage offers a unique opportunity to enjoy nature, recreation, and peaceful living. Community boat launch on the Allegheny River available, this home is perfect for outdoor lovers looking to fish, paddle, or simply relax by the water. Thoughtfully cared for over the years, you'll find a warm, functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and a kitchen equipped with essential appliances. Outside, the spacious lot offers plenty of room for gardens, gatherings, or storing your outdoor gear. Whether you're searching for a weekend retreat or a quiet place to call home, 195 Kinch Rd is a gem in a hidden corner of Venango County.

19. 2024-09-06
    listed $79,000 Active
20. 2022-06-03
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 58.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,173
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,047
• − Management: −$1,047
• − Depreciation: −$2,167
• Taxable income: $3,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $3,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,002
• Composite: 43.52/100
• National rank: #6452
• State rank: #415 of 658 in PA

Livability — President

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,067

Population outlook (Venango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,827 people
• By 2030: 46,061 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 39,989 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 34,094 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 22,500 · -53.9%
• By 2100: 13,659 · -72.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Venango

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+41.4 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Current HPI: 218.0124
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $74,500 West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $77,500 West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $80,000 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $79,000 AVBREALTORS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $69,000 AVBREALTORS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $542 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.