2920 Post Ave · Erie, PA 16508

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1931 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1931

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $80k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.29%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2920 Post Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,370 (0%)	0mo	$80,000	$58	95
2829 Feasler Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	2mo	$153,000	$114	73
2324 W 32nd St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,396 (+2%)	0mo	$225,000	$161	73
3022 Hudson Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (-3%)	6mo	$165,000	$124	70
2116 W 34 St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+7%)	3mo	$319,900	$219	66
2918 Hudson Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,199 (-12%)	2mo	$162,900	$136	63
3515 Pacific Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,333 (-3%)	1mo	$240,000	$180	62
3504 Allegheny Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (+1%)	6mo	$220,000	$159	61
1918 W 38th St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,310 (-4%)	6mo	$198,000	$151	56
3611 Oakwood St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (-1%)	5mo	$176,840	$130	55
1909 W 37th St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,254 (-8%)	5mo	$169,500	$135	52
3025 Berkley Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (-12%)	5mo	$175,000	$145	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $23,161
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $66,990
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16508

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,877/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	43d	1	1.08mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$1,945	$1.48	43d	7	1.27mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	43d	1	1.29mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	43d	1	1.29mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	43d	1	1.29mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.38mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	1.42mi
4024 Canterbury Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   historical
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $80,000
3. 1985-10-16
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,877 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,877
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $5,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,958
• Household income: $56,391
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.05%
• Current HPI: 250.759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $80,000 GEBOR
• 1985-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,877 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.