Monroe Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$290,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,331 sqft · SingleFamily · 248 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Monroe's unique first-floor gathering room overlooking the kitchen and café creates a great entertaining space, plus a secondary bedroom and bath offer an ideal guest suite. Chrome fixtures and engineered marble vanities in the bathrooms add elegance and durability. The upstairs includes a loft and 4 bedrooms with a private owner's retreat.

Key facts

• Secondary bedroom
• Chrome fixtures
• Upstairs loft

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR GATHERING ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• GUEST SUITE
• CHROME FIXTURES
• ENGINEERED MARBLE VANITIES
• UPSTAIRS LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $290,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,442.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,781 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,442
• List price: $290,990
• Delta: -8.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
428 Raven Row	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,331 (0%)	1mo	$309,530	$133	88
421 Raven Row	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,284 (-2%)	1mo	$304,270	$133	84
123 Colette	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+3%)	3mo	$575,000	$239	80
506 Nightingale Ave	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,496 (+7%)	0mo	$369,475	$148	75
429 Raven Row	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,089 (-10%)	2mo	$299,330	$143	70
445 Raven Row	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	1mo	$334,631	$129	68
434 White Heron Way	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-13%)	1mo	$279,770	$138	67
424 Raven Row	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	2mo	$339,151	$130	67
1131 Crane Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	1mo	$344,331	$132	67
475 White Heron Way	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	1mo	$339,271	$130	66
1103 Crane Ct	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	2mo	$344,631	$132	64
2102 Monument Hl	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-13%)	2mo	$314,999	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,116
• Equity at exit: $47,630

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-116,756
• Equity at exit: $27,619

Cash invested: $89,444 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,590 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 205 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,953

Max offer price $243,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-305	-5% $-415	+0% $-525	+5% $-636	+10% $-746
Rent	-10% $-706	-5% $-616	+0% $-525	+5% $-435	+10% $-345
Rate	-1.0pp $-365	-0.5pp $-444	base $-525	+0.5pp $-608	+1.0pp $-692

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,860
• Closing costs: $9,583
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	93d	1	0.20mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	24d	1	0.27mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	64d	1	0.76mi
2207 Allison Creek Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	28d	1	0.76mi
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	18d	1	1.49mi
738 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,600	$1.02	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $290,990 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $290,990 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $290,990 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $290,990 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $289,990 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 229 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 225 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 224 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 223 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 222 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 221 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 220 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 219 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 218 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 216 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 215 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 214 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 212 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 211 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 210 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 209 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 208 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 207 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 206 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 205 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 203 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 201 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 200 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 197 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 196 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 195 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 194 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 192 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 191 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 188 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 187 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 186 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 183 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 182 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,894
• − Property taxes: −$4,792
• − Insurance: −$3,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$9,293
• Taxable loss: −$12,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,884
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

The Monroe Plan in Cibolo, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, modern interiors, and a great layout for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Listed $309,990 Zillow