4042 Waving Hickory Blvd · St. Cloud, FL 34772

$37,428

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,946 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. 2-story new construction Bungalow with 1946 square feet, 3 bedrooms with loft, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and a covered lanai. Downstairs, enjoy an open layout and a gourmet kitchen with Silestone countertops, shaker-style wood cabinets, Samsung stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. The entire lower level and upstairs baths are finished with luxury vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Upstairs, you'll find 3 spacious bedrooms including your owner's suite complete with a walk-in wardrobe, linen closet, and a private en-suite bath with dual vanities and a tiled shower. Additional features for your convenience include a half bath downstairs

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4042 Waving Hickory Blvd, Saint Cloud, FL 34772; List price available (listing provided by Zillow)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home; Aria plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1946

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Aria plan; Active listing (modified May 21, 2026)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $37k).
• Cap rate 62.1% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 868 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,428

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 199.28%
• DSCR: 9.87
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,362
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4030 Waving Hickory Blvd	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,946 (0%)	1mo	$355,900	$183	98
4017 Kindling Wood Way	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,946 (0%)	1mo	$352,900	$181	97
5556 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+3%)	1mo	$380,900	$190	85
5545 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+3%)	2mo	$395,900	$197	84
4065 Kindling Wood Way	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+8%)	1mo	$367,900	$175	84
4023 Kindling Wood Way	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,066 (+6%)	1mo	$357,900	$173	82
4011 Kindling Wood Way	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,066 (+6%)	1mo	$357,900	$173	82
5550 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-6%)	1mo	$386,095	$212	75
5527 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-12%)	2mo	$368,900	$215	66
5557 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-12%)	1mo	$373,900	$218	65
5581 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-12%)	2mo	$377,900	$220	62
5599 Buckeye Bend Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-12%)	1mo	$372,620	$217	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.83×
• Total profit: $103,044
• Equity at exit: $5,581

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.51×
• Total profit: $225,442
• Equity at exit: $3,236

Cash invested: $10,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34772

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 868
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$196
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $561/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $338

Max offer price $37,428

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,357
• Closing costs: $1,123
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3923 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,350	$1.27	24d	1	1.04mi
3928 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,924	$1.60	15d	1	1.07mi
4095 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	1.28mi
5116 Tana Ter Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,395	$1.31	20d	1	1.30mi
4113 Malawi Trl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,900	$1.31	22d	1	1.32mi
3997 Magenta Pl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,350	$1.40	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $37,428 Pending
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $374,285 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $374,285 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,097
• − Property taxes: −$561
• − Insurance: −$187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
• − Management: −$2,439
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,089
• Taxable income: $21,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,179
• After-tax cash flow: $15,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,390
• Household income: $97,868
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 2% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 36% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.55%
• Current HPI: 274.6517
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B