923 North Nellius St · Woodville, TX 75979

$140,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1980 0.33 ac lot $95/sqft · 17% below area Est $170k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you'll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that's perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• New flooring
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• BREAKFAST BAR
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEW FLOORING
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH
• NEW ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLE ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($871/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Woodville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#741 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Woodville ISD (town): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #563 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,517
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
922 N Nellius	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,488 (+1%)	12mo	$185,000	$124	83
704 Tucker	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-1%)	17mo	$135,000	$93	72
920 N Nellius St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+9%)	22mo	$220,000	$136	61
803 N Nellius St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-13%)	11mo	$187,000	$146	57
407 W Walt Davis Dr W	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+8%)	2mo	$170,000	$107	50
1406 W Dogwood	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,629 (+10%)	13mo	$171,000	$105	40
910 W Dogwood St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+15%)	20mo	$209,000	$123	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $80,936
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $234,834
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75979

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,941/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $112	+0% $73	+5% $33	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $17	+0% $73	+5% $128	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $108	base $73	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $140,000 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you’ll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that’s perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

16. 2026-05-13
    price $140,000 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you’ll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that’s perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

17. 2026-05-13
    price $140,000

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you’ll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that’s perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

18. 2026-04-04
    listed $145,000 Active 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you'll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that's perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

19. 2026-04-04
    listed $145,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you'll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that's perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

20. 2026-04-03
    listed $145,000 Active 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you’ll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that’s perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

21. 2026-04-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home located in a highly desirable, well-established neighborhood! Featuring a spacious and inviting layout, the kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar that opens seamlessly to the living room—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm focal point in the main living area, ideal for relaxing evenings at home. Beautiful new flooring has recently been installed, adding a fresh, modern touch throughout. Outside, you’ll find a generous backyard with plenty of room to play, garden, or host gatherings, along with a covered porch that’s perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. New architectural shingle roof added this year! A 2-car carport provides ample covered parking and additional storage space. This home offers comfort, functionality, and location all in one. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

22. 2026-02-25
    listed $135,000 Active
23. 2026-02-25
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,941 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,941 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,941
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$334
• After-tax cash flow: $1,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846440
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,581
• Composite: 28.24/100
• National rank: #6800
• State rank: #563 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #741
• US rank: #13727

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodville, TX
• County: Tyler County · 11,273 people
• City population: 11,273
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 11,273
• Household income: $51,594
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 117.0

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.40%
• Current HPI: 178.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $140,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $140,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $145,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $145,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $135,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $135,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,941 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.