403 S 27th St · Louisville, KY 40212

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1910 3,864 sqft lot Est $110k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a 3 bedroom and 2 bath on a corner lot. Could be a great rehab project for an investment peoperty. This home has fire damage.

Key facts

• 3,864 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: RUSSELL
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Raised ranch architectural style; Two stories; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built in 1910; Vinyl siding and stone exterior; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Partial chain-link fencing; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 27 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bathrooms located on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Four closets; One fireplace on the first floor; Cellar basement and areas with no basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.80%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2620 W Madison St	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-8%)	1mo	$74,000	$69	75
2321 W Market St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,138 (-3%)	1mo	$110,000	$97	72
2338 W Madison St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (-3%)	1mo	$125,000	$110	70
637 S 27th St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,110 (-6%)	7mo	$40,000	$36	65
2102 Magazine St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-2%)	3mo	$42,500	$37	56
2425 Elliott Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+13%)	5mo	$145,000	$109	54
720 S 24th St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,254 (+7%)	7mo	$155,000	$124	54
2647 Alford Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,117 (-5%)	8mo	$119,900	$107	52
408 Dr W J Hodge St	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (+8%)	3mo	$120,000	$94	52
3007 Duncan St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,220 (+4%)	5mo	$45,000	$37	52
2537 Crop St	0.37mi	2/— (-1)	1,336 (+14%)	8mo	$16,500	$12	48
2012 W Main St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+14%)	8mo	$72,000	$54	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $63,177
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $163,463
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $679

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $374	+0% $351	+5% $328	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $306	+0% $351	+5% $395	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $371	base $351	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.01mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	24d	1	0.06mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	24d	1	0.18mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	24d	1	0.18mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	18d	1	0.18mi
430 S 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1288	$1,400	$1.09	24d	1	0.21mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	24d	1	0.28mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	24d	1	0.30mi
2300 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	24d	1	0.39mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	24d	1	0.42mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.43mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	24d	1	0.43mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	17d	1	0.47mi
214 N 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1012	$915	$0.90	24d	1	0.47mi
2411 Elliott Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	892	$895	$1.00	24d	1	0.48mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	13d	1	0.50mi
2132 Rowan St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$928	$1.06	4d	4	0.56mi
322 N 24th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	17d	1	0.57mi
2433 Slevin St Unit 2433-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	4d	1	0.61mi
515 S 20th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	17d	1	0.62mi
331 N 23rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	855	$1,150	$1.35	18d	1	0.65mi
120 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.69mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	4d	1	0.71mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	0.71mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	11d	1	0.72mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	24d	1	0.76mi
451 N 25th St Unit Mk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	988	$875	$0.89	4d	1	0.81mi
112 N 18th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	944	$1,050	$1.11	24d	1	0.85mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	24d	1	0.85mi
409 N 20th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	4d	1	0.85mi
1810 Magazine St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,450	$1.16	11d	1	0.86mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$895	$0.78	21d	1	0.86mi
2634 Garland Ave Unit A Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$940	$0.82	24d	1	0.86mi
2724 Garland Ave Unit 202 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$745	$0.78	4d	1	0.87mi
200 N 18th St Unit 200-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$775	$1.05	21d	1	0.87mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	24d	1	0.88mi
2416 Garland Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,600	$1.37	24d	1	0.89mi
2711 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,100	$0.95	24d	1	0.93mi
832 Hazel St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	4d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $80,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$746
• After-tax cash flow: $3,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-13 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $30,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-09-14 Sold (MLS) $64,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-08-28 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-07-18 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-06-30 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-04-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-08 Listed $75,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-08 Price Changed $68,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-07 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-02-08 Listed $75,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.