2233 E Behrend Dr #61 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$37,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition $45/sqft · 16% below area Est $45k · 16% under ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER MAY CARRY...Cozy yet spacious! Single-wide offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, perfect for downsizing without sacrificing comfort. Features include vaulted ceilings, a large kitchen with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and a separate pantry. All appliances are included. Fresh interior paint brightens the space, with tile flooring in main areas and new carpet in the bedrooms. Enjoy a custom walk-in tiled shower and a newly carpeted deck. The AC was replaced in 2022 (coils in 2021). The full canopy on three sides adds efficiency, plus two carports for convenience. Close to the clubhouse, pool, and spa—don't miss this opportunity! This is a 55+ Community and must be park-approved prior to offers, 750+ credit score (no exceptions). Lot rent: $1010 per month.

Key facts

• Separate pantry
• Large kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SEPARATE PANTRY
• CUSTOM WALK-IN TILED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Canyon School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 366 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); North Canyon High School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,842 students, 55% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.30%
• DSCR: 6.71
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,286
• List price: $37,900
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 E Behrend Dr #126	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	23mo	$155,000	$161	53
2701 E Utopia Rd #234	0.73mi	2/1.0	896 (+7%)	3mo	$18,000	$20	52
19225 N Cave Creek Rd N #61	0.43mi	2/1.5	758 (-10%)	12mo	$11,000	$15	52
2619 E Oraibi Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	730 (-13%)	1mo	$125,000	$171	44
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-11%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $63,418
• Equity at exit: $5,651

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.96×
• Total profit: $137,519
• Equity at exit: $3,277

Cash invested: $10,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $37,900

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,148	+0% $1,135	+5% $1,122	+10% $1,108
Rent	-10% $995	-5% $1,065	+0% $1,135	+5% $1,204	+10% $1,274
Rate	-1.0pp $1,154	-0.5pp $1,144	base $1,135	+0.5pp $1,125	+1.0pp $1,115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,475
• Closing costs: $1,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,725	$1.90	0d	9	0.19mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	0d	21	0.30mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,669	$1.95	1d	64	0.30mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	4d	16	0.32mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,572	$1.64	0d	12	0.68mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	9d	1	0.82mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	1d	11	0.82mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	5d	9	0.87mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	7	0.87mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	5d	7	1.01mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	26d	1	1.16mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	26d	1	1.18mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	26d	1	1.18mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	0d	10	1.35mi
3301 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	26d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $37,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,900 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,900 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,900 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,900 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $37,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $37,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-02-28
    price $37,900 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    SELLER MAY CARRY...Cozy yet spacious! Single-wide offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, perfect for downsizing without sacrificing comfort. Features include vaulted ceilings, a large kitchen with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and a separate pantry. All appliances are included. Fresh interior paint brightens the space, with tile flooring in main areas and new carpet in the bedrooms. Enjoy a custom walk-in tiled shower and a newly carpeted deck. The AC was replaced in 2022 (coils in 2021). The full canopy on three sides adds efficiency, plus two carports for convenience. Close to the clubhouse, pool, and spa—don't miss this opportunity! This is a 55+ Community and must be park-approved prior to offers, 750+ credit score (no exceptions). Lot rent: $1010 per month.

17. 2026-01-09
    listed $45,900 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    SELLER MAY CARRY...Cozy yet spacious! Single-wide offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bath, perfect for downsizing without sacrificing comfort. Features include vaulted ceilings, a large kitchen with granite countertops, a breakfast bar, and a separate pantry. All appliances are included. Fresh interior paint brightens the space, with tile flooring in main areas and new carpet in the bedrooms. Enjoy a custom walk-in tiled shower and a newly carpeted deck. The AC was replaced in 2022 (coils in 2021). The full canopy on three sides adds efficiency, plus two carports for convenience. Close to the clubhouse, pool, and spa—don't miss this opportunity! This is a 55+ Community and must be park-approved prior to offers, 750+ credit score (no exceptions). Lot rent: $1010 per month.

18. 2025-11-16
    historical
19. 2025-09-30
    price $45,900
20. 2025-08-26
    price $49,900
21. 2025-06-05
    price $59,900
22. 2025-04-18
    price $69,500
23. 2025-01-29
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,123
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$1,103
• Taxable income: $13,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,321
• After-tax cash flow: $10,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-wide manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Siding appears slightly worn
• Minor interior walls — Some discoloration visible

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Siding appears slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Some discoloration visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-49.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $37,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $45,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $45,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $59,900 ARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $69,500 ARMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $75,000 ARMLS