115 Ford Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$156,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 1987 9,147 sqft lot $124/sqft · 20% above area Est $130k · 20% over $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a beautiful time of year to be near the Lake, Lake Gaston no less. . Thinking of a new home at the lake this year?? You may have found it. So many new upgrades you will get that new home feeling. Exterior features new vinyl siding, underpinning, garage, retaining wall and windows. Interior features newly built addition (22), flooring LVP, main bath shower, vanities and recently completed Kitchen, new cabinets counters, stove and sink. Washer & Dryer convey and have barely been used. New lighting throughout home. This will make a lovely home for full time living or a summer getaway at beautiful Lake Gaston. Lots of parking room in a fully graveled driveway. Enjoy time outside on your screened back porch or your spacious front porch. No storage issues here with the garage area plus two additional storage buildings. River Ridge community offers two swimming pools, concession stand, tennis, pickleball and basketball courts, fishing pond, fishing pier, community boat launch with day slips, 2 club houses and is a gated community. Run don't walk to this opportunity! Please bring approved buyers.

Key facts

• Screened back porch
• New cabinets
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEWLY BUILT ADDITION
• NEW CABINETS
• SCREENED BACK PORCH
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $156k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,960 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.20%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,110
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: 19.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Boardman Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+2%)	1mo	$140,000	$109	80
150 Ford	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-5%)	14mo	$79,000	$66	71
37 Iowa Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+3%)	7mo	$267,500	$206	69
31 Feather Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-11%)	13mo	$184,000	$164	59
10 Forest Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-14%)	13mo	$188,500	$175	56
599 Boardman Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-11%)	21mo	$200,000	$179	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $34,503
• Equity at exit: $56,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $100,099
• Equity at exit: $78,083

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$195 /mo · $2,340/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,000 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    listed $169,900 Active 1119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

    What a beautiful time of year to be near the Lake, Lake Gaston no less. . Thinking of a new home at the lake this year?? You may have found it. So many new upgrades you will get that new home feeling. Exterior features new vinyl siding, underpinning, garage, retaining wall and windows. Interior features newly built addition (22), flooring LVP, main bath shower, vanities and recently completed Kitchen, new cabinets counters, stove and sink. Washer & Dryer convey and have barely been used. New lighting throughout home. This will make a lovely home for full time living or a summer getaway at beautiful Lake Gaston. Lots of parking room in a fully graveled driveway. Enjoy time outside on your screened back porch or your spacious front porch. No storage issues here with the garage area plus two additional storage buildings. River Ridge community offers two swimming pools, concession stand, tennis, pickleball and basketball courts, fishing pond, fishing pier, community boat launch with day slips, 2 club houses and is a gated community. Run don't walk to this opportunity! Please bring approved buyers.

18. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus $51,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This is a lovely very well kept 2 bed 1 & 1/2 bath home. Features a nice big living room, kitchen with eat in space, laundry area, front porch, back screened porch, two nice sheds and if you have boats and cars this has plenty of parking. So many beautiful Azalea bushes around the home very pretty. You will love this home !

19. 2017-04-17
    listed $59,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    This is a lovely very well kept 2 bed 1 & 1/2 bath home. Features a nice big living room, kitchen with eat in space, laundry area, front porch, back screened porch, two nice sheds and if you have boats and cars this has plenty of parking. So many beautiful Azalea bushes around the home very pretty. You will love this home !

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$2,340
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $3,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$738
• After-tax cash flow: $4,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+188.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $169,900 RVLG
• 2017-06-20 Sold (MLS) $51,000 RVLG
• 2017-04-17 Listed $59,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $97 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.