111 N Orchard St · Watertown, NY 13601

$125,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1880 0.25 ac lot $61/sqft · 47% below area Est $237k · 47% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Two-Unit Property with Strong Potential – Opportunity awaits with this two-unit property offering flexible use and value-add potential. Whether continuing as a multi-unit residence or exploring renovation options, this property presents a range of possibilities, some of which have already been started, including the kitchen. The first unit spans two levels and includes four bedrooms, one full bathroom, a partially completed kitchen, formal dining room, living room, 1st floor laundry room, and both front and back porches, along with access to a spacious backyard. Many rooms showcase original tin ceilings that are in great condition. The second unit is located on one level and featur

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1880

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two-unit property with separate gas and electric meters for each unit
• Financial info: Operating expenses include insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story building; Existing property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Carpet and vinyl flooring; varying flooring in different areas
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,814/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1634% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.83%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,664
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -47.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
377 W Main St	0.40mi	6/2.0	1,991 (-4%)	23mo	$176,000	$88	57
310 Howk St	0.24mi	6/3.0	1,810 (-12%)	17mo	$181,000	$100	50
146-148 E Main St	0.71mi	6/2.0	2,048 (-1%)	20mo	$160,500	$78	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $83,486
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $254,876
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,445/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,466	-5% $1,430	+0% $1,395	+5% $1,360	+10% $1,324
Rent	-10% $1,173	-5% $1,284	+0% $1,395	+5% $1,506	+10% $1,617
Rate	-1.0pp $1,458	-0.5pp $1,427	base $1,395	+0.5pp $1,363	+1.0pp $1,330

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	4	1	$1,692
1× unit	0	0	$1,122
Total (2 units)			$2,814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $134,900 Active 1167-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,445
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,701
• − Management: −$2,701
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $15,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,758
• After-tax cash flow: $12,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $125,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $134,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,445 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.