217 W Arlee Ave · Lemay, MO 63125

$64,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 767 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1931 5,240 sqft lot $85/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated home in the Lemay area featuring an oversized parking area and a flat, level yard. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, while the primary bedroom offers wood flooring and a walk-in closet. Convenient main-floor laundry provides easy access, with a door leading directly to the backyard and a storage shed for additional space. Located just minutes from Highways 55 and 255, this home offers a great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor.

Key facts

• Flat level yard
• Walk-in closet
• Storage shed

Tags

• OVERSIZED PARKING AREA
• FLAT LEVEL YARD
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 5.3% in Lemay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Hancock Place (suburban): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #251 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $65k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.13%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,690
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -51.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 Carthage Ave	0.23mi	1/1.5	825 (+8%)	1mo	$109,900	$133	74
320 Degenhardt Ave	0.31mi	1/1.0	806 (+5%)	7mo	$125,000	$155	71
1408 Dammert Ave	0.29mi	1/1.0	720 (-6%)	8mo	$164,900	$229	70
1710 Telegraph Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	700 (-9%)	3mo	$90,000	$129	64
331 Rauhut Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (+1)	712 (-7%)	2mo	$146,500	$206	64
111 W Loretta Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	845 (+10%)	6mo	$79,900	$95	62
9914 Clyde Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	845 (+10%)	8mo	$150,000	$178	60
121 Mann St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (+1)	816 (+6%)	4mo	$119,900	$147	55
816 Regina Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (+1)	798 (+4%)	2mo	$200,000	$251	55
9723 Gentry Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0 (+1)	672 (-12%)	7mo	$170,000	$253	53
303 Weiss Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (-9%)	7mo	$169,900	$243	40
837 Wachtel Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	880 (+15%)	9mo	$159,900	$182	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $13,746
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $43,292
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63125

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,223/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 W Etta Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$1,274	$1.36	7d	1	0.27mi
9954 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	4d	1	0.32mi
9964 Meadow Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	7d	1	0.36mi
127 E Holden Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.38mi
274 Kingston Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	522	$999	$1.91	2d	4	0.67mi
709 Dammert Ave Unit Labs St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.81mi
207 Waller Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.95mi
315 Sigsbee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	22d	1	1.03mi
8511 Idaho Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	12d	1	1.38mi
4236 Fatima Dr Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	10d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $64,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $79,900 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Welcome to this updated home in the Lemay area featuring an oversized parking area and a flat, level yard. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, while the primary bedroom offers wood flooring and a walk-in closet. Convenient main-floor laundry provides easy access, with a door leading directly to the backyard and a storage shed for additional space. Located just minutes from Highways 55 and 255, this home offers a great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor.

15. 2022-10-13
    price $85,000
16. 2022-09-28
    price $95,000
17. 2020-12-17
    soldstatus $35,000
18. 2012-05-21
    soldstatus $24,000
19. 2000-03-15
    soldstatus $30,000
20. 1995-12-07
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 1995-08-04
    soldstatus
22. 1991-03-04
    soldstatus $9,500
23. 1981-01-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,223 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,223 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,223
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $3,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $3,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock Place
• NCES district ID: 2913620
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $41,890
• Composite: 27.08/100
• National rank: #7048
• State rank: #251 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lemay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemay, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,294
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,294
• Household income: $61,624
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 631.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: American 9% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.27%
• Current HPI: 234.3792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+787.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-28 Price Changed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,223 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.