138 Expedition Way · San Antonio, TX 78220

$198,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 208 Days on market

Built 2019 4,599 sqft lot Est $318k · 38% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

Key facts

• 4,599 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Rosillo Creek Residential Community Inc; Annual association fee of $200; Association fee covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1 parking space
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Public water; Water connected
• Home design: 2-story home; East-facing; Resale property; Built by Lennar
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built from public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Gazebo; Back yard fencing; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Multiple living areas; Main-level primary suite; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hirsch El (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 533 students, 95% FRL); Davis Middle (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 545 students, 96% FRL, charter); Houston H S (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 856 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 80% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 116 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,757/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 705% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,130 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,634
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
362 Ambush Rdg	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,947 (+2%)	2mo	$229,000	$118	84
402 Filibusters	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,936 (+2%)	6mo	$269,000	$139	80
6318 Katy Star	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,755 (-8%)	8mo	$270,000	$154	72
5915 Willow Point Blvd	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,857 (-2%)	4mo	$330,282	$178	71
5930 Willow Point Blvd	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,857 (-2%)	6mo	$318,138	$171	69
6210 Katy Star	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,803 (-5%)	11mo	$295,000	$164	69
5902 Willow Point Blvd	0.38mi	4/3.0	1,997 (+5%)	5mo	$335,593	$168	66
123 Katy Post	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (-9%)	8mo	$289,500	$167	65
751 Ambush Rdg	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,947 (+2%)	5mo	$219,000	$112	63
6310 Katy Star	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,075 (+9%)	13mo	$289,000	$139	62
5923 Willow Point Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,788 (-6%)	4mo	$312,123	$175	59
5911 Willow Point Blvd	0.41mi	4/3.0	1,997 (+5%)	13mo	$350,287	$175	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $87,235
• Equity at exit: $178,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $262,487
• Equity at exit: $384,670

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78220

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,118/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $152,130

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-204	+0% $-260	+5% $-316	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-329	+0% $-260	+5% $-190	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-209	base $-260	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Samuel Kemper San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	14d	1	0.07mi
242 Ambush Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,495	$1.17	25d	1	0.13mi
115 Katy Post San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1725	$1,995	$1.16	25d	1	0.16mi
114 Katy Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2315	$1,900	$0.82	6d	1	0.18mi
6410 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,715	$1.18	12d	1	0.19mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	25d	1	0.20mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	3d	1	0.20mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	19d	1	0.20mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	25d	1	0.26mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	45d	1	0.26mi
6406 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,499	$1.03	16d	1	0.32mi
414 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$1,800	$0.98	25d	1	0.34mi
6427 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	19d	1	0.36mi
462 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,555	$1.10	25d	1	0.40mi
463 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,545	$0.97	23d	1	0.43mi
535 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,550	$0.99	6d	1	0.43mi
627 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1776	$1,900	$1.07	25d	1	0.52mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	22d	1	0.56mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$1,750	$0.95	25d	1	0.56mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	12d	1	0.56mi
6102 Walnut Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1611	$1,750	$1.09	45d	1	0.59mi
6334 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,797	$1.20	25d	1	0.61mi
5847 Tree View St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,900	$1.40	19d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $198,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    status Pending
11. 2026-05-01
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-05-01
    price $174,240
13. 2026-04-16
    price $174,000
14. 2026-04-04
    price $200,000
15. 2026-04-03
    status Active
16. 2026-02-24
    status Pending
17. 2026-02-24
    status Active
18. 2026-02-16
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-02-12
    status Active
20. 2026-02-12
    price $185,000
21. 2026-02-03
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-01-23
    status Active
23. 2026-01-19
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-12-08
    price $225,000
25. 2025-10-07
    price $245,000
26. 2025-09-24
    listed $259,000 Active
27. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus Sold 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

28. 2019-06-13
    status Pending 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

29. 2019-06-08
    price $186,999 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

30. 2019-04-18
    price $185,999 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

31. 2019-04-03
    price $185,499 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

32. 2019-03-08
    listed $184,999 New 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    The "Rosedale" by Lennar now in Rosillo Creek. This two story home with 1880 square feet of open living space features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a loft. The master bedroom is located downstairs. The kitchen overlooks the family room and dining room. Energy Star Appliances by GE, privacy fence in back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,118 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,118 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$6,118
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$6,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,423
• Household income: $41,710
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 705.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 30% Two or more races 22% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.86%
• Current HPI: 284.9844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.53%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $174,240 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $174,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $200,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-16 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-12 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $185,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-19 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $245,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $259,000 Unlock MLS
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2019-06-13 Pending — LERA
• 2019-06-08 Price Changed $186,999 LERA
• 2019-04-18 Price Changed $185,999 LERA
• 2019-04-03 Price Changed $185,499 LERA
• 2019-03-08 Listed $184,999 LERA

Property tax history

+47.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,118 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.