The Congaree Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$227,811

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Unwind after a long day in the Congaree's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. The expansive kitchen island makes a great buffet or informal dining area.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 177 days

Tags

• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $227,811 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $250,063.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,979 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,063
• List price: $227,811
• Delta: -8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Independence Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+9%)	1mo	$233,000	$142	63
1402 Centerline Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	6mo	$309,990	$191	59
913 W Cook St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+2%)	12mo	$525,000	$344	57
806 Independence	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-6%)	13mo	$245,000	$173	57
806 Lexington	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+6%)	16mo	$261,990	$165	51
828 Lexington Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+6%)	19mo	$270,000	$170	51
808 Lexington	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-6%)	19mo	$286,500	$202	50
817 Lexington	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+9%)	16mo	$255,990	$156	47
492 Milton St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,454 (-3%)	18mo	$275,000	$189	44
114 Cotton Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-14%)	14mo	$233,000	$181	38
507 Fountain View Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (+8%)	17mo	$257,000	$159	34
704 Savanna Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-13%)	17mo	$239,900	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $123,253
• Equity at exit: $225,277

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $373,215
• Equity at exit: $485,818

Cash invested: $70,018 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 59 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 118.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,500 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 126 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$313 /mo · $3,751/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $220,602

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-117	+0% $-204	+5% $-290	+10% $-376
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-280	+0% $-204	+5% $-127	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-140	base $-204	+0.5pp $-268	+1.0pp $-334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,516
• Closing costs: $7,502
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	9d	1	0.50mi
902 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,700	$1.04	9d	1	0.51mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	113d	1	0.85mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	10d	1	0.85mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	49d	1	0.85mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	31d	1	0.85mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	165d	1	0.95mi
305 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,410	$0.83	3d	1	0.95mi
500 Shady Bank Way Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2229	$2,275	$1.02	0d	1	0.98mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	83d	1	0.99mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	85d	1	1.02mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX	3.0	1.5	1196	$1,600	$1.34	130d	1	1.02mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	51d	1	1.03mi
313 Plum Dr Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,581	$0.87	7d	1	1.05mi
503 Northern Red Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$1,925	$1.00	104d	1	1.05mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	112d	1	1.10mi
410 White WIllow Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,895	$1.01	16d	1	1.13mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	130d	1	1.15mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	65d	1	1.24mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,799	$1.09	101d	1	1.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	156d	1	1.28mi
412 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$2,250	$1.11	10d	1	1.29mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	184d	1	1.31mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,795	$1.08	23d	1	1.32mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,775	$1.07	3d	1	1.32mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	134d	1	1.35mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,950	$0.96	23d	1	1.36mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,900	$0.94	3d	1	1.36mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,950	$0.96	21d	1	1.36mi
310 Pennington Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1977	$1,900	$0.96	70d	1	1.43mi
403 Silver Birch Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1629	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	1.44mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	124d	1	1.44mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	165d	1	1.45mi
315 Pennington Rd Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	1.47mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	148d	1	1.49mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	95d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 303 Eldora Dr, Josephine TX 75173Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $268,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: The Congaree planSingle-family (new construction)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory type)Built 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1505

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)New construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $227,811 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $227,811 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $227,811 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $227,811 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $227,811 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $227,811 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   price $227,811 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $235,311 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $235,311 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $235,311 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $235,311 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $235,311 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $235,311 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $235,311 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $235,311 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $235,311 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $235,311 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $235,311 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $235,311 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $235,311 Active 159 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $235,311 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    price $235,311 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $237,811 Active 157 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $237,811 Active 156 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $237,811 Active 155 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $237,811 Active 154 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $237,811 Active 153 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $237,811 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $237,811 Active 151 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $237,811 Active 150 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $237,811 Active 149 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $237,811 Active 148 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $237,811 Active 147 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $237,811 Active 146 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,811 Active 145 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,811 Active 144 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,811 Active 143 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    days on market $237,811 Active 142 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $237,811 Active 141 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $237,811 Active 140 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $237,811 Active 139 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $237,811 Active 138 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $237,811 Active 137 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $237,811 Active 136 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $237,811 Active 135 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $237,811 Active 134 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $237,811 Active 133 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $237,811 Active 132 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $242,811 Active 131 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $242,811 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,007
• − Property taxes: −$3,751
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$7,275
• Taxable loss: −$6,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,639
• After-tax cash flow: $-804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,525–$22,575 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and primary bathroom. It has potential for increasing its value with exterior improvements and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch ↑
• Both Add a smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds a modern touch ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 303 Eldora Dr, Josephine TX 75173Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $268,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: The Congaree planSingle-family (new construction)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory type)Built 2026 (listing year)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1505

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)New construction plan