446 W Lake Shore Dr · Springfield, IL 62703-5059

$143,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1957 7,200 sqft lot Est $134k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready 3 bed, 1 bath ranch w/ partially finished basement! Large eat-in kitchen and spacious living room! Updated bathroom! Hardwood, new carpet, fresh paint, SS appliances and more! Plenty of storage! Potential to finish more of basement w/ roughed in plumbing for 2nd bathroom! Large fenced-in back yard w/ patio space for entertaining, storage shed, and Brand New garage! Beautiful landscaping! Basement is professionally waterproofed w/ lifetime warranty!

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1957
• Construction: Not new construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot; Gravel road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood in two bedrooms; Carpet in one bedroom; Tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Full basement, partially finished; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Springfield Southeast High Sch (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 1,261 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($989 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 44% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $143k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3625 Sheffield Rd	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-0%)	4mo	$130,000	$100	82
3515 Ivanhoe Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,233 (-5%)	1mo	$117,000	$95	81
2456 Devonshire Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-2%)	1mo	$125,000	$98	81
146 Circle Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+3%)	0mo	$175,000	$131	73
2025 E Hood St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+5%)	3mo	$139,900	$103	70
3518 Sheffield Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,443 (+11%)	2mo	$150,000	$104	69
1913 E Hood St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,218 (-6%)	1mo	$147,000	$121	62
2155 Pickett St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-11%)	7mo	$120,000	$103	54
3719 E Hooker St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,429 (+10%)	3mo	$146,500	$103	49
1937 Pickett St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+14%)	5mo	$145,000	$98	44
3213 Sherman St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,493 (+15%)	5mo	$159,900	$107	41
77 Glen Aire Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-12%)	7mo	$80,000	$70	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $47,718
• Equity at exit: $64,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $127,356
• Equity at exit: $99,092

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703-5059

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,950/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 East Hazel Dell Ln Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1350	$2,300	$1.70	21d	1	0.56mi
2949 Fox Bridge Rd Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$960	$1.07	21d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $143,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $143,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $143,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $143,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $143,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,950
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $3,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$894
• After-tax cash flow: $4,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+84.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $143,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $94,100 Public Records
• 2015-10-23 Sold (MLS) $94,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-26 Listed $99,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2012-09-10 Sold (MLS) $87,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-03 Listed $89,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 2007-04-27 Sold (MLS) $85,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-08 Listed $89,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,950 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.