3350 Knight Rd NE · Cumberland City, TN 37191

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1990 6.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and build your dream home on this beautiful level 6.8 acre lot with electric, water and septic already and available. The manufactured that is currently on the property has no value at all.

Key facts

• 6.8-acre parcel
• Mini-farm living
• No hoa

Tags

• 6.8-ACRE PARCEL
• MATURE TREES
• PARTIALLY CLEARED TRACT
• CUSTOM HOME CONSTRUCTION
• MINI-FARM LIVING
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.6% in Cumberland City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#409 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #65 of 139 in TN (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Woodlawn Elementary (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #154 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 0% FRL); Northwest High (math 6% / reading 34%, grade F, #178 of 332 statewide, top 55%, 1,456 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 40% district-wide (40 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2,583 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (617 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.66%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,517
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $53,010
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37191

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $768/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $586	-5% $550	+0% $515	+5% $480	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $451	+0% $515	+5% $579	+10% $644
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $547	base $515	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-10-02
   historical 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Come and build your dream home on this beautiful level 6.8 acre lot with electric, water and septic already and available. The manufactured that is currently on the property has no value at all.

2. 2025-08-07
   status Pending
3. 2025-06-18
   listed $125,000 Active 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Come and build your dream home on this beautiful level 6.8 acre lot with electric, water and septic already and available. The manufactured that is currently on the property has no value at all.

4. 2025-06-16
   price $125,000
5. 2025-05-28
   listed $140,000 Active
6. 2025-05-24
   historical
7. 2025-05-19
   price $146,000
8. 2025-05-12
   status Active
9. 2025-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-04-10
    listed $90,000 Active
11. 2025-04-08
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$768
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $5,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 4703030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,423
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7641
• State rank: #65 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cumberland City

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #25436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,028
• Population (ZIP): 3,998

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 236,633 people
• By 2030: 258,978 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 305,456 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 353,147 · +49.2%
• By 2075: 471,289 · +99.2%
• By 2100: 564,122 · +138.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.0% · R 58.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+12.7 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.93%
• Current HPI: 283.6155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listed $140,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-24 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $146,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Listed $90,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $768 · +48.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.