3520 Lake Dr · Pontoon Beach, IL 62040

$140,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1935 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold As-Is. Seller not to make any repairs. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with 2 car detached garage and fenced yard sits on 1.1 acres. Large eat in kitchen with separate dining room. Enclosed back porch. Master bedroom has two closets. Apple and Peach trees on the property.

Key facts

• Updated electric
• Covered patio
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• FINISHED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Single phase electric; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-and-a-half story layout; Residential property
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Other construction materials; Basement present (unfinished)
• Exterior features: Back yard; Level lot; Chain link and other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Marble; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms total; 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Basement (unfinished); 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-196/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,042 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Granite City High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #522 of 693 statewide, top 76%, 1,805 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,015 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,320
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Emerald Way East	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,998 (+1%)	4mo	$299,900	$150	72
4172 State Route 162	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-8%)	1mo	$219,000	$121	64
233 Emerald Way	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (-5%)	2mo	$344,000	$184	60
317 Ratz Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,894 (-4%)	10mo	$295,000	$156	54
245 Emerald Way W	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (-7%)	18mo	$349,900	$191	44
12 Legacy Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,914 (-3%)	13mo	$230,000	$120	43
4241 State Route 162	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,145 (+9%)	12mo	$200,000	$93	37
217 Emerald Way W	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,706 (-13%)	18mo	$346,000	$203	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-25,322
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-29,756
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62040

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,348/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $137,109

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 William John Ct Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	1998	$1,495	$0.75	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   status $140,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $140,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,348
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granite City CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1717280
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,082
• Composite: 9.15/100
• National rank: #9864
• State rank: #570 of 620 in IL

Livability — Pontoon Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #19961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,404
• Household income: $60,031
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 204.4612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+86.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-18 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-23 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,348 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.