34 Magnolia Dr #34 · Calistoga, CA 94515

$193,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1973 Poor condition $185/sqft · 19% below area Est $239k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Has electricity and standard utilities
• Home design: Mobile home
• Construction: Manufactured/mobile construction
• Exterior features: On-site pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,083 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.33%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,000
• List price: $193,900
• Delta: -18.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
157 Wisteria Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-1%)	15mo	$195,000	$188	79
219 Champagne W	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+10%)	14mo	$170,000	$148	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $64,672
• Equity at exit: $28,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $180,201
• Equity at exit: $16,765

Cash invested: $54,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,908/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$757
• Net cashflow: $1,508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $193,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,642	-5% $1,575	+0% $1,508	+5% $1,441	+10% $1,374
Rent	-10% $1,223	-5% $1,365	+0% $1,508	+5% $1,650	+10% $1,793
Rate	-1.0pp $1,606	-0.5pp $1,557	base $1,508	+0.5pp $1,458	+1.0pp $1,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,475
• Closing costs: $5,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2014 Tablerock Ct Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$4,095	$2.81	15d	1	0.68mi
1700 Cedar St Calistoga, CA	2.0	1.0	962	$3,200	$3.33	15d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $193,900 Coming Soon 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,861
• − Property taxes: −$2,908
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,461
• − Management: −$3,461
• − Depreciation: −$5,641
• Taxable income: $15,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,830
• After-tax cash flow: $14,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations across all systems and areas to become move-in ready and increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.
• Major Bathrooms — No bathroom photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.
• Major Flooring — No flooring photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall and paint renovations.
• Major Windows — No window photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant window renovations.
• Major Foundation/structure — No foundation/structure photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant foundation and structure renovations.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC and mechanical renovations.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping and curb appeal renovations.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value.
• Resale Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value.
• Resale Exterior renovation — A modern exterior will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value.
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale Interior wall and paint — A fresh interior will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale Window replacement — New windows will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale Foundation and structure repair — A structurally sound foundation will increase the property's resale value.
• Resale HVAC and mechanical upgrade — A modern HVAC and mechanical system will improve the property's comfort and increase its resale value.
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No bathroom photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant bathroom renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant exterior renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant flooring renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant interior wall and paint renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No window photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant window renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No foundation/structure photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant foundation and structure renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant HVAC and mechanical renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant landscaping and curb appeal renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom renovation — A modern bathroom will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Resale Exterior renovation — A modern exterior will attract more buyers and increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Interior wall and paint — A fresh interior will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Window replacement — New windows will improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Foundation and structure repair — A structurally sound foundation will increase the property's resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC and mechanical upgrade — A modern HVAC and mechanical system will improve the property's comfort and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B