21826 Hickory Springs Ct · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$209,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,675 sqft lot $124/sqft · 15% below area Est $247k · 15% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home offers an open floor plan, high ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the peaceful backyard with a patio perfect for entertaining. Located in a desirable neighborhood with great schools and parks nearby. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (18.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,060 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,116
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -15.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17594 Longwood Trace Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,690 (0%)	6mo	$219,900	$130	93
22361 Mountain Pine Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,739 (+3%)	0mo	$277,500	$160	67
22439 Douglas Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-1%)	1mo	$255,990	$153	61
22427 Douglas Ct	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,674 (-1%)	2mo	$263,990	$158	58
22455 Douglas Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (-1%)	2mo	$252,990	$152	57
22471 Douglas Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (-1%)	3mo	$254,990	$153	54
22515 Serviceberry Branch Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	1mo	$234,990	$152	49
22446 Douglas Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	2mo	$227,990	$147	48
22454 Douglas Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	2mo	$244,990	$158	47
22422 Douglas Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	4mo	$253,990	$170	42
22467 Douglas Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-8%)	6mo	$259,990	$168	42
22450 Douglas Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-12%)	2mo	$237,990	$160	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-53,492
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-85,805
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$653 /mo · $7,838/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $171,060

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-160	+0% $-220	+5% $-279	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-303	+0% $-220	+5% $-136	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-166	base $-220	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	26d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $209,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $219,900 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This charming home offers an open floor plan, high ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the peaceful backyard with a patio perfect for entertaining. Located in a desirable neighborhood with great schools and parks nearby. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

18. 2026-03-16
    price $224,900 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This charming home offers an open floor plan, high ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the peaceful backyard with a patio perfect for entertaining. Located in a desirable neighborhood with great schools and parks nearby. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

19. 2026-02-17
    price $239,900 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This charming home offers an open floor plan, high ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the peaceful backyard with a patio perfect for entertaining. Located in a desirable neighborhood with great schools and parks nearby. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

20. 2026-01-30
    listed $245,000 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    This charming home offers an open floor plan, high ceilings, and plenty of natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances. The master bedroom boasts a walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the peaceful backyard with a patio perfect for entertaining. Located in a desirable neighborhood with great schools and parks nearby. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home!

21. 2023-10-04
    historical $1,839
22. 2023-10-01
    listed $1,839
23. 2023-09-23
    historical $1,839
24. 2023-09-22
    price $1,839
25. 2023-09-19
    price $1,549
26. 2023-09-09
    price $1,849
27. 2022-09-29
    soldstatus Sold 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-A by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

28. 2022-05-28
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-A by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

29. 2022-05-21
    price $252,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-A by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

30. 2022-05-20
    listed $264,990 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    NEW Cottage Series ''Camellia II" Elevation-A by Lennar in amazing Pinewood at Grand Texas!!! The wonderful single story Camellia floor plan has a smart layout. The front door leads to an open concept living area that is ideal for daily activities and entertaining guests with a modern kitchen, dining room and family room, all side by side. Three bedrooms share a hall bathroom at the front of the home, while the owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a private bathroom and large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,838 · $653/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,837 · $653/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$7,838
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$6,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming single-story home offers an open floor plan with modern appliances and fixtures. It is in good condition with minimal maintenance needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds greenery
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Enhances outdoor living space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding plants — Improves curb appeal and adds greenery ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Enhances outdoor living space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Rental Removed $1,839 HARMLS
• 2023-10-01 Listed for Rent $1,839 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Rental Removed $1,839 RENT.
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $1,839 RENT.
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $1,549 RENT.
• 2023-09-09 Price Changed $1,849 RENT.
• 2022-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-21 Price Changed $252,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-20 Listed $264,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+92.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,838 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.