3013 Captain Jax Way · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$223,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3013 Captain Jax Way, Winter Haven, FL 33884
• Financial info: List price $223,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Crestone II plan; Spec new construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,386

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-238/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,432 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,648
• Equity at exit: $33,398

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,532
• Equity at exit: $19,367

Cash invested: $62,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$280 /mo · $3,360/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $221,120

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $58	+0% $-20	+5% $-97	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-96	+0% $-20	+5% $57	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $37	base $-20	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,998
• Closing costs: $6,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 Magnolia Pl Unit 715 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,650	$1.53	25d	1	0.04mi
415 Laurel Cove Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,725	$1.40	5d	1	0.08mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	16d	24	0.21mi
5202 Waterview Way #5202 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,750	$1.88	25d	1	0.36mi
7903 Waterview Way Unit 7903 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$1,600	$1.72	25d	1	0.41mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	25d	1	0.59mi
1015 Mahaffey Rd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,948	$1.76	25d	1	0.60mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	5d	1	0.64mi
2108 Jonathan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,975	$1.10	25d	1	0.67mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$2,175	$2.34	4d	24	0.69mi
2066 Katie Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1802	$2,055	$1.14	16d	1	0.77mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,800	$1.76	5d	8	0.91mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	25d	1	0.95mi
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	25d	1	0.96mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	25d	1	1.05mi
133 Lameraux Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,550	$1.50	25d	1	1.08mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	16d	1	1.15mi
5850 Cypress Gardens Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1308	$1,800	$1.38	16d	2	1.22mi
5850 Cypress Gardens Blvd #806 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,800	$1.33	5d	1	1.22mi
3601 Cypress Gardens Rd Unit 6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	25d	1	1.26mi
121 Longfellow Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,745	$1.25	5d	1	1.42mi
116 Holmes Pl Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1875	$2,800	$1.49	25d	1	1.44mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 362-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $223,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,360
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$6,516
• Taxable loss: −$4,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$971
• After-tax cash flow: $733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhome with a good condition score and modern updates is ready for a new owner. It offers a spacious and flexible open-concept layout with two bathrooms and a lavish owner's suite. The home's curb appeal and interior design make it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Upgraded lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace outdated appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Upgraded lighting can improve the home's ambiance and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B