1525 Cold Springs Rd #16 · Cold Springs, CA 95667

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $54k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rarely does a home in this price range offer so many desirable upgrades, improvements, and an outdoor living space that truly sets it apart. This charming 1959 Crestline 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is a hidden gem that combines affordability, comfort, and character in a peaceful greenbelt setting, tucked away off the beaten path of the community. Fresh exterior paint & trim enhance the home's curb appeal, while the refreshed interior features freshly painted walls and ceilings, energy-efficient double-pane windows, and a floor plan designed to maximize every square foot. The updated kitchen offers newer self-closing cabinetry and lovely greenbelt views. The cozy living area provides year-r

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Updated kitchen
• Outdoor living space

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER BATH FITTER SHOWER
• ON DEMAND WATER HEATER
• SPACIOUS DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Greenbelt nearby; See remarks for lot details
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease in effect (monthly land lease amount not included here)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Propane; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Internet available; Private sewer; Water from water district
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Originally built in 1959; Updated / remodeled; Located in a senior community; Facing/entry details not specified
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured home by Riviera Mfg.
• Exterior features: Porch awning; Covered deck; Covered patio; Storage area; Workshop/shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Microwave; Free standing refrigerator; Pantry cabinet; Breakfast room / nook; Ceramic counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (including propane stove); Wall and window cooling units
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered deck and covered patio; Dual pane full windows; Pantry cabinet; Breakfast nook; Ceramic countertops; Living room with additional features (other); Porch awning; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included inside the unit; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 36.3% vs local median 2.0% in Cold Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,305 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gold Trail Union Elementary (rural): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #396 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $273 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.27%
• DSCR: 5.77
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1525 Cold Springs Rd #8	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	500 (+11%)	10mo	$60,000	$120	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $65,034
• Equity at exit: $5,890

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.93×
• Total profit: $176,227
• Equity at exit: $3,415

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95667

• Rents YoY: 12.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,016	-5% $1,002	+0% $989	+5% $975	+10% $961
Rent	-10% $863	-5% $926	+0% $989	+5% $1,052	+10% $1,115
Rate	-1.0pp $1,009	-0.5pp $999	base $989	+0.5pp $978	+1.0pp $968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $39,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $11,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,867
• After-tax cash flow: $8,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gold Trail Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,658
• Composite: 46.55/100
• National rank: #5298
• State rank: #396 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cold Springs

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #26620

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D+ Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cold Springs, CA
• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,830
• Household income: $89,938
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -480.50%
• Current HPI: 262.6014
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.48%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B