100 Lynch St · Hawkins, TX 75765

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

6,534 sqft lot $148/sqft · 22% above area Est $119k · 22% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This beautifully and completely remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with timeless charm. It is conveniently located near schools, and the charm of small-town living, yet just a short drive to surrounding cities. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated from fresh flooring and paint throughout to stylish fixtures and finishes. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, featuring custom cabinetry, countertops, and appliances. Enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a move-in ready home, where all the hard work has already been done. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a perfect East Texas getaway, this gem has it all.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 104 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,993
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 21.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
379 W Blackbourn St	0.35mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	15mo	$60,000	$64	60
383 Glazner St	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+3%)	15mo	$75,000	$74	59
424 W Blackbourn St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,105 (+13%)	1mo	$85,000	$77	56
225 Blackbourn St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+9%)	18mo	$169,000	$159	54
209 Lone Oak Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	896 (-8%)	16mo	$40,000	$45	44
170 Wells St	0.34mi	2/1.0	857 (-12%)	24mo	$85,000	$99	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $30,177
• Equity at exit: $65,987

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $89,912
• Equity at exit: $102,312

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,782/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $145,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Welcome home! This beautifully and completely remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with timeless charm. It is conveniently located near schools, and the charm of small-town living, yet just a short drive to surrounding cities. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated from fresh flooring and paint throughout to stylish fixtures and finishes. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, featuring custom cabinetry, countertops, and appliances. Enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a move-in ready home, where all the hard work has already been done. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a perfect East Texas getaway, this gem has it all.

19. 2026-04-13
    price $145,000 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Welcome home! This beautifully and completely remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with timeless charm. It is conveniently located near schools, and the charm of small-town living, yet just a short drive to surrounding cities. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated from fresh flooring and paint throughout to stylish fixtures and finishes. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, featuring custom cabinetry, countertops, and appliances. Enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a move-in ready home, where all the hard work has already been done. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a perfect East Texas getaway, this gem has it all.

20. 2026-03-06
    listed $150,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Welcome home! This beautifully and completely remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort with timeless charm. It is conveniently located near schools, and the charm of small-town living, yet just a short drive to surrounding cities. Every detail has been thoughtfully updated from fresh flooring and paint throughout to stylish fixtures and finishes. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, featuring custom cabinetry, countertops, and appliances. Enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a move-in ready home, where all the hard work has already been done. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a perfect East Texas getaway, this gem has it all.

21. 2025-09-25
    listed $159,900 Active
22. 2000-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,782 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,782 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,782
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$30
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawkins

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawkins, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $145,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $145,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $150,000 LAAR
• 2025-09-25 Listed $159,900 LAAR
• 2000-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,782 · +32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.