1216 Runaway Bay Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1978 3,093 sqft lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $182k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Reduced to $175,000. Seller will look at all offers* Recently updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom town with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas. Close to Lake Bridgeport. LVP throughout. Recently installed dishwasher. Don't let this one get away. Per seller, no HOA.

Key facts

• No hoa
• Built 1978
• Listed 202 days

Tags

• CLOSE TO LAKE BRIDGEPORT
• RECENTLY INSTALLED DISHWASHER
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.59%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,784
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -3.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
813 Haynie Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$289,900	$186	74
184 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-2%)	2mo	$264,900	$185	58
111 Jim Walters Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+10%)	12mo	$295,000	$184	56
217 Shady Oaks Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,591 (+9%)	1mo	$269,000	$169	55
115 Jim Walters Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,591 (+9%)	17mo	$299,900	$188	53
115 Valley Ridge Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+11%)	0mo	$335,000	$207	53
503 Runaway Bay Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+10%)	3mo	$289,900	$181	51
171 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-2%)	14mo	$250,000	$175	50
180 Cimmarron Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+11%)	3mo	$309,900	$191	47
167 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-2%)	18mo	$269,000	$188	47
416 Half Moon Way	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (+9%)	10mo	$224,900	$142	46
188 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,263 (-13%)	14mo	$244,650	$194	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,003
• Equity at exit: $43,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $20,091
• Equity at exit: $47,223

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,412/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $155	+0% $106	+5% $56	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $41	+0% $106	+5% $171	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $150	base $106	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1210 Chestnut Ct Unit 1 Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,800	$1.67	44d	1	0.09mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,700	$1.41	4d	1	0.09mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1207	$1,700	$1.41	7d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 186 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 184 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-01-23
    price $174,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    *Reduced to $175,000. Seller will look at all offers* Recently updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom town with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas. Close to Lake Bridgeport. LVP throughout. Recently installed dishwasher. Don't let this one get away. Per seller, no HOA.

17. 2025-11-30
    listed $175,000 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    *Reduced to $175,000. Seller will look at all offers* Recently updated 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom town with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas. Close to Lake Bridgeport. LVP throughout. Recently installed dishwasher. Don't let this one get away. Per seller, no HOA.

18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-08-01
    status Active
20. 2025-07-31
    historical
21. 2025-04-01
    listed $179,500 Active
22. 2025-03-26
    historical
23. 2024-12-04
    price $179,500
24. 2024-09-27
    listed $185,000 Active
25. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,412 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$789/yr (+$66/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,412
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $1,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Runaway Bay, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-30 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $179,500 NTREIS
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $179,500 NTREIS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,412 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.