581 N Crawford Ave #112 · Dinuba, CA 93618

$43,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 1981 $32/sqft · 48% below area Est $83k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your 2nd chance to purchase this mobile home! 2 bdrm, 2 ba located in Dinuba Downs 55+ living community. Large living room, dining rm with built in cabinets, and family rm. Close to shopping centers. Home needs TLC, but has lost of potential! Call to make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1981
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.2% vs local median 2.7% in Dinuba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#517 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Dinuba Unified (town): math 26% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #215 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $43k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,420 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.34%
• DSCR: 5.91
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,250
• List price: $43,000
• Delta: -48.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $55,855
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.78×
• Total profit: $129,814
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93618

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
786 E North Way Dinuba, CA	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,975	$1.79	21d	1	0.46mi
590 Lincoln Ave Unit 102 Dinuba, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,995	$1.89	43d	1	0.50mi
120 Eaton Ave Apt 22 Dinuba, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	2d	1	0.68mi
493 N Alta Ave Dinuba, CA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,775	$1.35	1d	1	0.91mi
1764 Golden Way Dinuba, CA	3.0	2.0	1863	$2,175	$1.17	3d	1	1.06mi
417 W Franklin Way Dinuba, CA	2.0	1.0	1166	$1,595	$1.37	43d	1	1.09mi
1050 E Kamm Ave Unit 105 Single Level Dinuba, CA	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	19d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $43,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $43,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $43,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $43,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $43,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $43,000 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Here is your 2nd chance to purchase this mobile home! 2 bdrm, 2 ba located in Dinuba Downs 55+ living community. Large living room, dining rm with built in cabinets, and family rm. Close to shopping centers. Home needs TLC, but has lost of potential! Call to make your appointment today!

18. 2026-01-05
    price $47,000
19. 2025-12-09
    price $50,000
20. 2025-11-05
    price $59,000
21. 2025-10-11
    price $69,900
22. 2015-06-05
    soldstatus $27,000
23. 2015-06-05
    soldstatus $27,000
24. 2015-03-13
    listed $27,000
25. 2015-03-13
    listed $27,000
26. 2012-01-10
    soldstatus $15,600
27. 2011-10-31
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 47 unhealthy d/yr today · 53 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$1,682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $11,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,863
• After-tax cash flow: $8,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinuba Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600065
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,763
• Composite: 36.68/100
• National rank: #4603
• State rank: #215 of 517 in CA

Livability — Dinuba

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #17466

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dinuba, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,223

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 21% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.76%
• Current HPI: 360.2783
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+116.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $43,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $47,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $50,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $59,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $69,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $27,000 TCMLS
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $27,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2015-03-13 Listed $27,000 TCMLS
• 2015-03-13 Listed $27,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2012-01-10 Sold (MLS) $15,600 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-31 Listed $19,900 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2021): $84 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.