8040 Cedar Key Way · Fort Myers, FL 33971

$299,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Land · 89 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $218/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed 4 bedroom with smart features and modern finishes on a cul de-sac street. Single-story thoughtfully planned living space, perfect for families or entertaining. Enjoy cooking & gathering in the open-concept kitchen with quartz countertops, center island and modern Deako smart lights and more. Spacious primary bedroom with walk-in closet. West facing views from your private patio. Ideal for your morning coffee or evening sunset. New construction with Warranty included. Finishings may vary- images are representational only of the model home based in that community.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open-concept kitchen
• New construction

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WEST FACING VIEWS
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treeline Elementary School (math 51% / reading 51%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 1,135 students, 46% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Gateway High School (math 39% / reading 48%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,981 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 1347 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,955 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,815
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,001
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33971

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 1347
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,524

Max offer price $277,048

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-45	+0% $-130	+5% $-215	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-223	+0% $-130	+5% $-37	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-54	base $-130	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8035 Cedar Key Way Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,199	$1.41	12d	1	0.05mi
8029 Cedar Key Way Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,199	$1.41	5d	1	0.06mi
11162 Sunset Preserve Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,300	$1.43	25d	1	0.13mi
8369 Everly Preserve Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	5d	1	0.20mi
8417 Everly Preserve Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,500	$2.33	25d	1	0.23mi
8441 Everly Preserve Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,200	$0.82	25d	1	0.24mi
11205 Colonial Gateway Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$3,244	$2.36	3d	44	0.38mi
10800 Colonial Gateway Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,559	$2.49	3d	106	0.78mi
10501 Plain Sight Pkwy Fort Myers, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1921	$3,250	$1.69	3d	14	1.23mi
10131 Soltura Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,361	$2.38	3d	9	1.27mi
5349 29th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,850	$1.52	5d	1	1.28mi
5347 29th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,595	$1.33	23d	1	1.30mi
5345 29th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,595	$1.33	23d	1	1.30mi
7500 Omni Ln Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,724	$1.99	3d	11	1.34mi
9400 Ivy Brook Run Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,495	$1.25	25d	1	1.34mi
9232 Aviano Dr Unit Amazing Aviano Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$5,500	$3.10	25d	1	1.36mi
10351 Whispering Palms Dr #105 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1724	$2,500	$1.45	25d	1	1.42mi
10032 Ravello Blvd Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.5	1938	$1,900	$0.98	25d	1	1.43mi
5318 28th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,825	$1.52	17d	1	1.43mi
5319 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,425	$1.23	25d	1	1.43mi
5319 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	5d	1	1.43mi
5317 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	5d	1	1.43mi
5317 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,425	$1.23	25d	1	1.43mi
5317 30th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	5d	1	1.44mi
9440 Ivy Brook Run Fort Myers, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1269	$1,595	$1.26	25d	2	1.44mi
9440 Ivy Brook Run #509 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1220	$1,500	$1.23	5d	1	1.44mi
5560 Belrose St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2197	$2,500	$1.14	3d	1	1.47mi
3353 Antica St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1938	$2,100	$1.08	25d	1	1.47mi
3353 Antica St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1938	$2,100	$1.08	5d	1	1.47mi
10030 Salina St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	1629	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.48mi
918 Acroft Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,850	$1.30	25d	1	1.48mi
9460 Ivy Brook Run #710 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1220	$1,500	$1.23	13d	1	1.49mi
3175 Antica St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1629	$1,850	$1.14	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $299,999
3. 2026-03-06
   price $314,999
4. 2026-01-19
   price $324,999
5. 2025-12-31
   listed $331,985 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,557/yr (+$130/mo · 166.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,790
• Household income: $77,723
• Rent vs Own: 21.6% rent · 78.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 587.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 32% White 26% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 14% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.68%
• Current HPI: 317.7147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.69%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $299,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $314,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $324,999 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $331,985 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+125.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · +125.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.