507 Miller Rd · East Carroll, PA 15931

$82,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1982 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for some privacy in Ebensburg? Check out this one story home with lots of storage, including an integral two car garage and detached two car garage, large deck perfect for summer evenings, part of the structure is a manufactured home, This property eligible under Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 7/4/2026. Seller will only respond to owner occupant offers in this timeframe. Freddie Mac will not respond to investor offers during the First Look period. Buyer must pay 2% transfer tax.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Lots of storage
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• LOTS OF STORAGE
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached and detached garage space; 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; 1.0 acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Basement present; Vinyl flooring; Baseboard heating; Oil heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cambria Heights SD (rural): math 27% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #280 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $83k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $81,656 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.21%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $27,513
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $76,766
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15931

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $689	-5% $666	+0% $642	+5% $619	+10% $596
Rent	-10% $520	-5% $581	+0% $642	+5% $704	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $684	-0.5pp $664	base $642	+0.5pp $621	+1.0pp $599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $82,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $82,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 502-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $82,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $6,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $6,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambria Heights SD
• NCES district ID: 4204740
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,855
• Composite: 38.0/100
• National rank: #4291
• State rank: #280 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Carroll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,852

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.99%
• Current HPI: 131.3961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+260.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $82,900 AHARMLS
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,362 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.