580 Rd 5814 · Dayton, TX 77327

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 381 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $146k · at est. ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover modern comfort in this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home completed in 2022, offering a blend of style and functionality in a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood. Step inside to find an open-concept living area that flows into an updated kitchen featuring contemporary finishes and ample storage. The spacious primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom, providing a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests or home office needs. Enjoy the outdoors in the expansive backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With its modern construction, thoughtful layout, and inviting setting, this home is ready for you—schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Expansive backyard
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,761
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,242
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,099
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,852/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,375

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $236	+0% $194	+5% $151	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $130	+0% $194	+5% $258	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $269	-0.5pp $232	base $194	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 381 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 380 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 379 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 378 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 371 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 367 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 366 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 365 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 364 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 363 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $149,900 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Discover modern comfort in this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home completed in 2022, offering a blend of style and functionality in a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood. Step inside to find an open-concept living area that flows into an updated kitchen featuring contemporary finishes and ample storage. The spacious primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom, providing a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests or home office needs. Enjoy the outdoors in the expansive backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With its modern construction, thoughtful layout, and inviting setting, this home is ready for you—schedule your private tour today!

15. 2026-02-17
    price $158,900 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Discover modern comfort in this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home completed in 2022, offering a blend of style and functionality in a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood. Step inside to find an open-concept living area that flows into an updated kitchen featuring contemporary finishes and ample storage. The spacious primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom, providing a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests or home office needs. Enjoy the outdoors in the expansive backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With its modern construction, thoughtful layout, and inviting setting, this home is ready for you—schedule your private tour today!

16. 2025-08-27
    price $174,900 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Discover modern comfort in this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home completed in 2022, offering a blend of style and functionality in a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood. Step inside to find an open-concept living area that flows into an updated kitchen featuring contemporary finishes and ample storage. The spacious primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom, providing a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests or home office needs. Enjoy the outdoors in the expansive backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With its modern construction, thoughtful layout, and inviting setting, this home is ready for you—schedule your private tour today!

17. 2025-06-02
    listed $182,900 Active 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Discover modern comfort in this beautifully built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home completed in 2022, offering a blend of style and functionality in a peaceful Cleveland neighborhood. Step inside to find an open-concept living area that flows into an updated kitchen featuring contemporary finishes and ample storage. The spacious primary bedroom includes a private ensuite bathroom, providing a quiet retreat at the end of the day. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility for guests or home office needs. Enjoy the outdoors in the expansive backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With its modern construction, thoughtful layout, and inviting setting, this home is ready for you—schedule your private tour today!

18. 2025-01-31
    historical
19. 2024-09-18
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,852 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,852 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,852
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$26
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6
• After-tax cash flow: $2,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022-built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Cleveland offers modern comfort and functionality in a peaceful neighborhood. The property is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $158,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $182,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+34.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,852 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.