2233 E Behrend Dr #178 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$29,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 132 Days on market

Built 1985 $21/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this excellent lot location offering boulder views on a quiet street. This 2 bed, 2 bath home is being sold AS-IS and HVAC 2023, Newer Hot Water Tank, includes copper plumbing, minor improvements, and a screened-in porch. A great opportunity to remodel and customize to your taste--keep the current layout or create an open kitchen/great room concept. Located in a desirable 55+ community with outstanding amenities including heated pools and spa, waterfalls, fitness center, clubhouse, pickleball, and more. Buyer must qualify with park management prior to submitting an offer: 750+ credit score, verifiable income of 3x lot rent, proof of savings equal to 6x lot rent, and background check. No rentals allowed. Lot rent $1010 + utilities. Must qualify with the park office.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1985

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$80,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 70.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $25,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 227.90%
• DSCR: 11.14
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $29,000
• Delta: -63.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 E Behrend Dr #128	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,389 (+3%)	8mo	$159,500	$115	89
2233 E Behrend Dr #78	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-8%)	0mo	$69,900	$56	82
2233 E Behrend Dr #29	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	2mo	$131,000	$105	79
2233 E Behrend Dr #26	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	5mo	$125,000	$86	78
2233 E Behrend Dr #197	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	7mo	$145,000	$100	77
2233 E Behrend Dr #121	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,240 (-8%)	7mo	$54,900	$44	74
2233 E Behrend Dr #219	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	0mo	$90,000	$78	71
2233 E Behrend Dr #84	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	11mo	$69,900	$56	71
2233 E Behrend Dr #17	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	6mo	$135,000	$89	62
2610 E Tonto Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-1%)	7mo	$250,000	$186	60
19225 N Cave Creek Rd #45	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	11mo	$47,900	$38	56
19809 N 26th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-15%)	7mo	$125,000	$109	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.10×
• Total profit: $90,142
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.59×
• Total profit: $191,542
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $1,542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $254

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,562	-5% $1,552	+0% $1,542	+5% $1,532	+10% $1,522
Rent	-10% $1,368	-5% $1,455	+0% $1,542	+5% $1,629	+10% $1,716
Rate	-1.0pp $1,557	-0.5pp $1,549	base $1,542	+0.5pp $1,535	+1.0pp $1,527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2030 E Wahalla Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,115	$1.51	3d	1	0.25mi
2336 E Utopia Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1327	$2,395	$1.80	6d	1	0.27mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 16 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,550	$1.79	19d	1	0.28mi
20007 N 20th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1251	$3,900	$3.12	44d	1	0.28mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	2d	10	0.37mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	0d	20	0.43mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,669	$1.95	0d	64	0.46mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	3d	16	0.48mi
2239 E Morrow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1545	$2,199	$1.42	0d	1	0.49mi
2239 E Morrow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1545	$2,199	$1.42	3d	1	0.49mi
18611 N 22nd St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1851	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.54mi
18611 N 22nd St #72 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.55mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,590	$1.65	0d	11	0.58mi
2636 E Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	25d	1	0.64mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	0d	11	0.70mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.71mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	8	0.77mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	0.77mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,675	$1.43	3d	3	0.80mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1245	$1,775	$1.43	22d	4	0.80mi
1510 E Taro Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,149	$1.89	25d	1	0.82mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr #1052 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$4,000	$3.45	44d	1	0.85mi
1506 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,045	$1.80	6d	1	0.85mi
1420 E Topeka Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,215	$1.51	8d	1	0.94mi
18633 N 15th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,249	$1.81	8d	1	0.95mi
1440 E Renee Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	25d	1	1.01mi
2934 E Blackhawk Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,280	$1.55	2d	1	1.07mi
3002 E Jeanette Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,700	$1.54	18d	1	1.08mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	25d	1	1.09mi
1702 E Michelle Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	5d	1	1.10mi
20223 N 30th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,300	$1.57	2d	1	1.13mi
2755 E Michigan Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,700	$2.05	18d	1	1.15mi
2602 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	25d	1	1.16mi
3039 E Hononegh Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,075	$1.37	15d	1	1.22mi
3056 E Siesta Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,375	$1.61	13d	1	1.22mi
2719 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1670	$1,891	$1.13	22d	1	1.24mi
3122 E Topeka Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,100	$1.65	22d	1	1.24mi
3133 E Kristal Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,600	$1.62	2d	1	1.26mi
3220 E Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,299	$1.68	25d	1	1.35mi
3220 E Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,299	$1.68	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $29,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $34,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $34,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $38,000 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this excellent lot location offering boulder views on a quiet street. This 2 bed, 2 bath home is being sold AS-IS and HVAC 2023, Newer Hot Water Tank, includes copper plumbing, minor improvements, and a screened-in porch. A great opportunity to remodel and customize to your taste--keep the current layout or create an open kitchen/great room concept. Located in a desirable 55+ community with outstanding amenities including heated pools and spa, waterfalls, fitness center, clubhouse, pickleball, and more. Buyer must qualify with park management prior to submitting an offer: 750+ credit score, verifiable income of 3x lot rent, proof of savings equal to 6x lot rent, and background check. No rentals allowed. Lot rent $1010 + utilities. Must qualify with the park office.

16. 2026-02-06
    listed $40,000 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this excellent lot location offering boulder views on a quiet street. This 2 bed, 2 bath home is being sold AS-IS and HVAC 2023, Newer Hot Water Tank, includes copper plumbing, minor improvements, and a screened-in porch. A great opportunity to remodel and customize to your taste--keep the current layout or create an open kitchen/great room concept. Located in a desirable 55+ community with outstanding amenities including heated pools and spa, waterfalls, fitness center, clubhouse, pickleball, and more. Buyer must qualify with park management prior to submitting an offer: 750+ credit score, verifiable income of 3x lot rent, proof of savings equal to 6x lot rent, and background check. No rentals allowed. Lot rent $1010 + utilities. Must qualify with the park office.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $19,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,605
• After-tax cash flow: $13,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $38,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $40,000 ARMLS