16990 Benson Rd · Cottonwood, CA 96022

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1983 15 ac lot Est $241k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on approximately 15 rolling acres in Cottonwood, this 1,280 sq. ft. home offers space, privacy, and incredible potential. The property features a functional layout with two bedrooms and one bathroom upstairs, along with two additional bedrooms and a bathroom downstairs, providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The land offers beautiful rolling terrain and plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. A detached shop adds valuable workspace and storage, making the property ideal for hobbies, projects, or equipment. While the home could benefit from updates and improvements, it presents a great opportunity for someone looking to build equity and create a pro

Key facts

• Cottonwood location
• Detached shop
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• DETACHED SHOP
• USABLE ACREAGE
• COTTONWOOD LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#476 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,303 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16990 Benson Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$188	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,236
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,555
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96022

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $285	+0% $219	+5% $152	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $137	+0% $219	+5% $300	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $279	base $219	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus $240,000 Closed
2. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-22
   status Active
4. 2026-04-22
   price $235,000
5. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-13
   listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,786 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 84.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$323
• After-tax cash flow: $2,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen Union
• NCES district ID: 0613170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,783
• Composite: 35.24/100
• National rank: #4978
• State rank: #226 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #16162

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,497

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.22%
• Current HPI: 364.3174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+4.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $240,000 SAOR
• 2026-04-26 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $235,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-19 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $229,900 SAOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.