20 Old Farm Rd · Lake Success, NY 11020

$1,888,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,883 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1951 0.36 ac lot $655/sqft · 12% below area Est $2150k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAKE SUCCESS COUNTRY CLUB COMMUNITY SPRAWLING EXPANDED RANCH - SUNNY SOUTHERN EXPOSURE Open Floor Plan Formal Living Room with Fireplace & Dining Room with Sliding Doors to Backyard Over-sized Deck - Sunny Eat-in Kitchen - Vaulted Family Room with Doors to Lush Backyard & Deck - Primary Bedroom on Main and En-suite Full Bathroom - Library (or 2nd Bedroom_ - 3rd Bedroom. 2nd Floor Features 2 Additional Bedrooms & Full Bathroom -Fabulous Park-Like Grounds! (120 x 121) Residents of Lake Success Enjoy Exclusive Amenities Including Private Police, Pool, Tennis, Golf, Sports Courts & 18 Hole Private Golf Course. Within Close Proximity to Major Highways, Shopping, Hospitals & Top Rated Schools - Lakeville Elementary & Great Neck South Middle & High Schools. COUNTRY CLUB LIVING AT ITS BEST!!

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.89M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-83k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $665k (64.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $670k (64.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $665k (64.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#124 in NY, #2,004 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $136k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $123k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$218k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.83M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $664,670 (64.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.72%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 23.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,150,144
• List price: $1,888,000
• Delta: -12.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Norfolk Rd	0.30mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,017 (+5%)	0mo	$2,320,000	$769	63
7 Robbins Ln	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,641 (-8%)	5mo	$1,785,000	$676	60
3 Horseshoe Ln	0.16mi	5/3.0	3,311 (+15%)	5mo	$2,100,000	$634	60
1 Linford Rd	0.65mi	5/4.0	3,061 (+6%)	1mo	$1,900,000	$621	50
52-50 Little Neck Pkwy	0.43mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,502 (-13%)	1mo	$1,198,000	$479	50
10 Briarfield Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,650 (-8%)	8mo	$1,880,000	$709	46
252-25 Leith Rd	0.56mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,632 (-9%)	6mo	$1,739,900	$661	43
2 Chester Dr	0.68mi	5/3.0	3,300 (+14%)	1mo	$2,480,000	$752	39
215 Melbourne Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,219 (+12%)	5mo	$1,850,000	$575	38
15 Grenfell Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,083 (+7%)	6mo	$3,050,000	$989	38
38 Wensley Dr	0.65mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,218 (+12%)	3mo	$1,900,000	$590	37
54-16 252nd St	0.64mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,584 (-10%)	4mo	$2,050,000	$793	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $162,173
• Equity at exit: $1,249,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $807,927
• Equity at exit: $2,321,046

Cash invested: $528,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11020

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 23.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,901
• Tax from tax record: −$1,532 /mo · $18,384/yr
• Insurance: −$787
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,407
• Net cashflow: $-6,925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,468

Max offer price $664,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,856	-5% $-6,391	+0% $-6,925	+5% $-7,459	+10% $-7,994
Rent	-10% $-7,454	-5% $-7,190	+0% $-6,925	+5% $-6,660	+10% $-6,396
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,974	-0.5pp $-6,445	base $-6,925	+0.5pp $-7,414	+1.0pp $-7,912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $472,000
• Closing costs: $56,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Highland Pl Great Neck, NY	5.0	3.0	1949	$6,000	$3.08	1d	1	0.26mi
2 Amherst Rd E Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.5	2607	$7,500	$2.88	2d	1	0.99mi
7009 267th St Glen Oaks, NY	6.0	3.0	2516	$5,400	$2.15	19d	1	1.18mi
22 Olive St Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.0	3390	$10,000	$2.95	1d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,888,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,888,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,888,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,888,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,888,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $1,948,000 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    LAKE SUCCESS COUNTRY CLUB COMMUNITY SPRAWLING EXPANDED RANCH - SUNNY SOUTHERN EXPOSURE Open Floor Plan Formal Living Room with Fireplace & Dining Room with Sliding Doors to Backyard Over-sized Deck - Sunny Eat-in Kitchen - Vaulted Family Room with Doors to Lush Backyard & Deck - Primary Bedroom on Main and En-suite Full Bathroom - Library (or 2nd Bedroom_ - 3rd Bedroom. 2nd Floor Features 2 Additional Bedrooms & Full Bathroom -Fabulous Park-Like Grounds! (120 x 121) Residents of Lake Success Enjoy Exclusive Amenities Including Private Police, Pool, Tennis, Golf, Sports Courts & 18 Hole Private Golf Course. Within Close Proximity to Major Highways, Shopping, Hospitals & Top Rated Schools - Lakeville Elementary & Great Neck South Middle & High Schools. COUNTRY CLUB LIVING AT ITS BEST!!

15. 2026-04-23
    historical $1,948,000 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    LAKE SUCCESS COUNTRY CLUB COMMUNITY SPRAWLING EXPANDED RANCH - SUNNY SOUTHERN EXPOSURE Open Floor Plan Formal Living Room with Fireplace & Dining Room with Sliding Doors to Backyard Over-sized Deck - Sunny Eat-in Kitchen - Vaulted Family Room with Doors to Lush Backyard & Deck - Primary Bedroom on Main and En-suite Full Bathroom - Library (or 2nd Bedroom_ - 3rd Bedroom. 2nd Floor Features 2 Additional Bedrooms & Full Bathroom -Fabulous Park-Like Grounds! (120 x 121) Residents of Lake Success Enjoy Exclusive Amenities Including Private Police, Pool, Tennis, Golf, Sports Courts & 18 Hole Private Golf Course. Within Close Proximity to Major Highways, Shopping, Hospitals & Top Rated Schools - Lakeville Elementary & Great Neck South Middle & High Schools. COUNTRY CLUB LIVING AT ITS BEST!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $18,384 · $1,532/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,146 · $2,095/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,761/yr (+$563/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$105,757
• − Property taxes: −$18,384
• − Insurance: −$9,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,434
• − Management: −$6,434
• − Depreciation: −$54,924
• Taxable loss: −$120,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-54,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Neck Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612510
• Math proficiency: 86% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $99,939
• Composite: 76.19/100
• National rank: #111
• State rank: #30 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Success

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #2004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Success, NY
• City population: 6,218
• Population (ZIP): 5,986

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% White 38% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Chinese 24% Korean 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Current HPI: 320.5214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $1,948,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $1,948,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $18,384 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.