2627 W Midvalley Ave #10 · Visalia, CA 93277

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $91k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home in the highly desirable Visalia Estates 55+ Community! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and active adult living. Enjoy an exceptional lifestyle with community amenities that include a clubhouse, sparkling pool, and pickleball courts—all just steps from your door. Situated on a spacious fenced corner lot, this property provides added privacy and plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment. Exterior features include a covered 2-car carport, storage shed, and an inviting Front porch perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or evening sunsets. Inside, you'll find a bright and spacious floor

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Covered carport
• Front porch

Tags

• VISALIA ESTATES COMMUNITY
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• FENCED CORNER LOT
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,441 finished square feet
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Has community and private pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected and available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a park
• Construction: Mobile home 24 ft wide by 60 ft long; Skirted exterior
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Tulare Joint Union High (suburban): math 18% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #280 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.27%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,783
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2627 W Midvalley Ave #107	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	2mo	$95,000	$66	98
2627 W Midvalley Ave #88	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	4mo	$72,000	$50	95
2627 W Midvalley Ave #5	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-0%)	3mo	$65,000	$45	92
2627 W Midvalley Ave #30	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	9mo	$68,900	$48	92
2627 W Midvalley Ave #104	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	5mo	$65,000	$47	89
2400 W Midvalley Ave Unit R5	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	7mo	$175,000	$122	83
2400 W Midvalley Ave Unit F-1	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	0mo	$68,000	$49	82
2627 W Midvalley Ave #109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$90,000	$67	82
4648 S Terrace St	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	1mo	$294,000	$227	78
2627 Midvalley #3	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	7mo	$79,000	$63	72
2627 W Midvalley Spc 3 Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	7mo	$79,000	$63	70
26814 S Mooney Blvd Unit D156	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$75,000	$60	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $54,578
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $135,343
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93277

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $1,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,089	-5% $1,063	+0% $1,037	+5% $1,011	+10% $985
Rent	-10% $882	-5% $960	+0% $1,037	+5% $1,115	+10% $1,193
Rate	-1.0pp $1,075	-0.5pp $1,056	base $1,037	+0.5pp $1,018	+1.0pp $998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3940 S Shady Ct Unit 123 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	910	$1,695	$1.86	44d	1	0.59mi
3940 S Shady Ct Apt 107 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,695	$1.78	44d	1	0.59mi
3919 S Sallee Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.59mi
3940 S Shady Ct Apt 223 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	910	$1,950	$2.14	44d	1	0.60mi
3837 W Rialto Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,100	$1.42	44d	1	0.89mi
3909 W Nellis Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,100	$1.42	21d	1	0.90mi
3922 W Nellis Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	44d	1	0.91mi
2546 W Victor Ct Unit 102 Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	44d	1	1.02mi
2704 W Whitendale Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$1,895	$1.20	21d	1	1.31mi
1917 W Whitendale Ave Unit 1917 Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,295	$1.24	44d	1	1.33mi
1107 W Victor Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,500	$1.46	14d	1	1.36mi
3618 W Country Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,095	$1.29	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $75,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $11,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,872
• After-tax cash flow: $9,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulare Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0639930
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,858
• Composite: 29.91/100
• National rank: #6384
• State rank: #280 of 517 in CA

Livability — Visalia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6351

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Visalia, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 163,333
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,985
• Household income: $80,548
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1896.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -371.43%
• Current HPI: 310.349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+276.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $75,000 TCMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $85,000 TCMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $87,888 TCMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $90,000 TCMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $90,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $95,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $79,900 TCMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $80,000 TCMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $85,000 TCMLS
• 2024-02-21 Listed $95,000 TCMLS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $67,500 TCMLS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $67,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-09-15 Listed $67,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) $52,900 TCMLS
• 2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $21,500 TCMLS
• 2017-10-29 Listed $21,500 TCMLS
• 2015-08-27 Sold (MLS) $20,000 TCMLS
• 2015-07-07 Listed $19,900 TCMLS