9190 Dougan Rd · Penn State Erie (Behrend), PA 16428

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1988 2.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile Home currently not at location. Option to relocate, 1988 Grandville 12x80 mobile home to property. (At Buyer's Expense). Land only listed also - MLS #152404. Taxes on land only. Well and septic already on property. Convenient location with well and mound system ready for hookup.

Key facts

• Mobile home
• 14 x 30 shed
• 2.1 acre lot

Tags

• MOBILE HOME
• 14 X 30 SHED
• VALUABLE STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Electric oven and electric range; Refrigerator; Carpet and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wattsburg Area SD (rural): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #149 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.08%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,644
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $22,567
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16428

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,051/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $267	+0% $244	+5% $221	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $201	+0% $244	+5% $288	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $264	base $244	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 455-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $80,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,051
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $2,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wattsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4225080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,117
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2778
• State rank: #149 of 539 in PA

Livability — Penn State Erie (Behrend)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,561
• Population (ZIP): 12,508

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.46%
• Current HPI: 257.9847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $80,000 GEBOR
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 2021-08-11 Sold (MLS) $65,500 GEBOR
• 2021-05-28 Listed $76,900 GEBOR
• 2020-07-19 Listed $59,900 GEBOR
• 1993-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,051 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.