28 West Rd · North Creek, NY 12853

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1940 Good condition 5.68 ac lot $228/sqft · 21% below area Est $440k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home sits on more than 5.5 acres of land. Featuring many recent upgrades. Upgraded appliances, new windows and hardwood floors throughout. A large outdoor deck with hot tub and grill. A breakfast nook with an additional dining room. Only 10 minutes to Gore mountain. Home is offered fully furnished.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• 5.5 acres of land
• Outdoor deck

Tags

• 5.5 ACRES OF LAND
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• NEW WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OUTDOOR DECK
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built area above grade: 1,530 (listed)
• Exterior features: Storage; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in gas oven
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Unfinished basement; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $349k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• North Warren Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #352 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $338,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.14%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,068
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -20.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $232,352
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $651,155
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $904	-5% $783	+0% $663	+5% $542	+10% $422
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $509	+0% $663	+5% $817	+10% $970
Rate	-1.0pp $839	-0.5pp $752	base $663	+0.5pp $572	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $349,000 Active 331-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,736
• − Management: −$3,736
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable income: $2,550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$612
• After-tax cash flow: $7,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on 5.5 acres is in good condition with recent upgrades. Aesthetic improvements like painting and cleaning gutters can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Warren Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616960
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,309
• Composite: 44.32/100
• National rank: #2829
• State rank: #352 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $349,000 ACVMLS