954 Allison St · Jacksonville, FL 32254

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1926 4,791 sqft lot Est $156k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is part of a portfolio and may be sold individually or as part of a package. Step into timeless charm with modern updates in this beautifully refreshed 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home nestled in the family friendly Woodstock neighborhood. Built in 1926, this 1,084 sq ft residence blends classic character with today's comforts. Enjoy peace of mind with a new roof (2024) & HVAC (2025), along with fresh interior paint and new flooring throughout, as well as kitchen updates, creating a clean and inviting atmosphere. Situated on a 50 x 100 ft lot, the property offers a manageable yard perfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. The functional layout provides comfortable living

Key facts

• Manageable yard
• New flooring
• Kitchen updates

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN UPDATES
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
954 Allison St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,084 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$120	97
3130 Mell Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	1mo	$180,000	$170	73
2667 Amy St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-4%)	0mo	$117,000	$113	70
941 Huron St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,208 (+11%)	2mo	$125,000	$103	69
3557 Dillon St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,035 (-4%)	1mo	$180,000	$174	56
1056 Hood Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-6%)	2mo	$154,500	$151	56
3242 Deason Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+10%)	2mo	$223,500	$187	56
2952 W 8th St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,119 (+3%)	3mo	$95,000	$85	56
1064 Woodstock Ave	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+6%)	3mo	$126,400	$110	53
1060 Prospect St	0.37mi	3/1.0	924 (-15%)	2mo	$145,000	$157	52
751 Dixon St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	923 (-15%)	2mo	$114,000	$124	51
2846 W 8th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	929 (-14%)	2mo	$133,500	$144	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.41% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $27,697
• Equity at exit: $61,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $77,700
• Equity at exit: $97,215

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32254

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $207	+0% $171	+5% $134	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $119	+0% $171	+5% $222	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $204	base $171	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
912 Huron St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	15d	1	0.12mi
1037 Detroit St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	2d	1	0.17mi
2851 Sophia St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	846	$1,000	$1.18	24d	3	0.21mi
3012 Imperial St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,395	$1.28	24d	1	0.24mi
2862 W 1st St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	15d	1	0.27mi
2862 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	4d	1	0.27mi
2852 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	8d	1	0.28mi
841 Ontario St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,285	$1.28	24d	1	0.29mi
3034 Detroit Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,399	$1.08	24d	1	0.30mi
2913 W 2nd St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	2d	1	0.36mi
1227 Dena St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,325	$1.28	24d	1	0.44mi
3055 2nd Street Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,340	$1.28	18d	1	0.44mi
2587 Orchard St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	992	$1,295	$1.31	8d	1	0.48mi
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	0.48mi
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	8d	1	0.48mi
3101 3rd Street Cir N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,150	$1.32	8d	1	0.48mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,375	$1.30	8d	1	0.52mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,375	$1.30	4d	1	0.52mi
2902 W 5th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,050	$0.76	8d	1	0.53mi
1305 Melson Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,399	$1.14	21d	1	0.56mi
3303 Broadway Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,550	$1.45	4d	1	0.56mi
3368 Columbus Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	955	$1,300	$1.36	5d	1	0.60mi
3305 Sunnybrook Ave N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,021	$1.01	24d	1	0.62mi
2939 W 6th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,225	$0.97	2d	1	0.63mi
1612 Alfen St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	945	$1,113	$1.18	8d	1	0.66mi
3326 W 1st St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	791	$995	$1.26	24d	1	0.66mi
3350 Sunnybrook Ave N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	24d	1	0.69mi
2410 McQuade St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,425	$1.09	24d	1	0.70mi
3688 Dillon St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,421	$1.16	24d	1	0.75mi
3450 Lowell Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,578	$1.31	24d	1	0.75mi
3352 Dillon St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,372	$1.12	24d	1	0.76mi
3515 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,036	$1.13	3d	1	0.77mi
3433 Brookhaven Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$1,295	$1.72	8d	1	0.79mi
3318 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	24d	1	0.81mi
3323 Nolan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	927	$1,050	$1.13	2d	1	0.83mi
2325 Westbrook Cir N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	812	$1,200	$1.48	24d	1	0.84mi
3035 Fitzgerald St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,021	$1.13	3d	1	0.87mi
3319 Hunt St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,295	$1.40	24d	1	0.88mi
3118 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1103	$1,148	$1.04	2d	1	0.88mi
1213 Moat St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1022	$1,283	$1.26	18d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-14
   status Active
4. 2026-04-09
   historical
5. 2026-03-27
   price $130,000
6. 2026-03-19
   price $132,500
7. 2026-03-12
   price $137,500
8. 2026-02-24
   price $140,000
9. 2026-02-17
   price $144,000
10. 2026-02-10
    price $145,000
11. 2026-01-23
    listed $150,000 Active
12. 2025-10-10
    soldstatus $422,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,253
• − Management: −$1,253
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$53
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,927
• Household income: $34,953
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 882.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Current HPI: 282.2981
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-69.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $130,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $132,500 realMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $137,500 realMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $144,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $145,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $150,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $422,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.