1352 Watts Ave · Chipley, FL 32428

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1956 10,454 sqft lot $35/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in the Heart of Chipley! Property is now priced below assessed value! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is ready for a complete rehab and offers a great opportunity to renovate to your vision. Located in the middle of Chipley, directly across from the Spanish Trail Playhouse and near Washington County schools. The seller plans to begin renovations soon, making this a great chance to get in early. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a full renovation project in a convenient location.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Attached carport
• Close to downtown

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Facing information not provided; Property zoned: City
• Construction: Wood siding with wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Paved lot; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom (12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 3.2% in Chipley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 775 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.63%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,721
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -70.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1380 Watts Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+4%)	2mo	$199,900	$135	81
1331 Coggin Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-7%)	2mo	$180,000	$137	81
1322 Coggin Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,383 (-3%)	6mo	$158,000	$114	77
576 Martin Luther King Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,343 (-5%)	4mo	$160,000	$119	65
616 3rd St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-9%)	16mo	$210,000	$162	58
643 5th St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,283 (-10%)	12mo	$194,400	$152	55
1311 Coggin Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+8%)	24mo	$195,000	$127	54
678 3rd St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (-10%)	20mo	$183,000	$143	52
795 1st St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+10%)	2mo	$280,000	$179	48
1275 Morris Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-12%)	7mo	$164,900	$132	36
689 Deermont Cir	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-12%)	11mo	$55,900	$45	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $22,357
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $58,929
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32428

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 775
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,437/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $593

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $49,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $54,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $55,000 Active 516-char remark
16. 2026-03-26
    historical
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $55,000 Active
18. 2026-03-17
    historical
19. 2026-03-02
    price $68,000
20. 2026-02-17
    price $74,000
21. 2026-02-16
    status Active
22. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
23. 2026-01-28
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,437 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,437
• − Insurance: −$1,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $5,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $4,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chipley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chipley, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,015

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 247.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $49,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $54,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $55,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $55,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $68,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $74,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $75,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,437 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.