616 Thorn Grove Pike · Sevierville, TN 37871

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1900 1.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity with 1.3 acres. Minutes from Sevierville and Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg Tennessee. Selling as is.

Key facts

• Pigeon forge
• 1.3 acres
• Gatlinburg tennessee

Tags

• 1.3 ACRES
• MINUTES FROM SEVIERVILLE
• PIGEON FORGE
• GATLINBURG TENNESSEE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Property sits on a 1.32-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 1.6% in Sevierville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#323 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.09%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,000
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Hollow Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-14%)	5mo	$263,000	$204	66
4507 Douglas Dam Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+9%)	20mo	$370,000	$226	56
805 Farnsworth Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	4mo	$325,000	$250	39
4543 Winslow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-14%)	6mo	$275,000	$214	33
4543 Winslow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-14%)	6mo	$275,000	$214	33
620 Asheville Hwy	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-11%)	22mo	$386,500	$290	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $24,701
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $84,223
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37871

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $852	-5% $810	+0% $768	+5% $726	+10% $684
Rent	-10% $604	-5% $686	+0% $768	+5% $850	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $843	-0.5pp $806	base $768	+0.5pp $729	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4116 Briggs Loop Kodak, TN	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,075	$1.58	45d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-04
   historical Under Contract
2. 2025-10-17
   listed $149,000 Active
3. 2012-09-10
   listed $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$724/yr (+$60/mo · 216.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $7,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,717
• After-tax cash flow: $7,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Sevierville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #21663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,548

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.24%
• Current HPI: 362.5754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+405.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Contingent — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-17 Listed $149,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2012-09-10 Listed $29,500 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.