Venice Plan · Estero, FL 33928

$494,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,849 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Estero, FL (18389 Parksville Dr listed in location data)
• Financial info: Listing status: Active; List price available (details omitted per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan home (Venice)
• Construction: Built as part of a new construction inventory (Plan); Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,849 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (plan: Venice)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

🏗️ New construction. The $494,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $491,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $495k).
• Recommended offer: $436k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,075/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $435,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,834
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-9%)	9mo	$445,000	$265	57
19282 Hinkley Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (+10%)	11mo	$639,000	$314	53
19390 Hinkley Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,032 (+10%)	11mo	$510,000	$251	52
18647 Ives Dr	0.55mi	3/3.0	2,032 (+10%)	12mo	$664,900	$327	47
20530 Pebble Glen Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,099 (+14%)	12mo	$579,000	$276	46
20154 Hartford Blvd	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,056 (+11%)	23mo	$535,260	$260	40
20604 Pebble Glen Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,655 (-10%)	19mo	$439,735	$266	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-55,648
• Equity at exit: $73,334

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-55,598
• Equity at exit: $42,525

Cash invested: $137,714 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,579
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$615 /mo · $7,378/yr
• Insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,066
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,302

Max offer price $491,834

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $950	-5% $780	+0% $610	+5% $440	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $409	+0% $610	+5% $810	+10% $1,011
Rate	-1.0pp $858	-0.5pp $735	base $610	+0.5pp $482	+1.0pp $353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,958
• Closing costs: $14,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	25d	1	0.13mi
18336 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2434	$8,500	$3.49	25d	1	0.18mi
20179 Millrun Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.5	2493	$4,300	$1.72	25d	1	0.21mi
18315 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$4,995	$2.04	5d	1	0.23mi
18334 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,700	$1.93	23d	1	0.26mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	25d	1	0.27mi
18278 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$7,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.30mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	17d	1	0.30mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2621	$3,495	$1.33	17d	1	0.33mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	5d	1	0.33mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	25d	1	0.35mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	4d	1	0.36mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	25d	1	0.37mi
20040 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	4.0	2534	$3,800	$1.50	25d	1	0.38mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	25d	1	0.39mi
18262 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2098	$3,700	$1.76	25d	1	0.40mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	25d	1	0.41mi
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	25d	1	0.41mi
18546 Ives Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$8,250	$4.06	25d	1	0.42mi
20210 Kingmont Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2267	$3,995	$1.76	25d	1	0.50mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	16d	1	0.52mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	25d	1	0.59mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	12d	1	0.59mi
19100 Hanley Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$4,000	$1.64	25d	1	0.66mi
21110 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	25d	1	0.84mi
19228 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	25d	1	0.89mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	25d	1	0.90mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	23d	1	0.98mi
19701 Deming Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	25d	1	1.01mi
19860 The Pl Blvd Miromar Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2606	$3,600	$1.38	5d	1	1.14mi
19565 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$3,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.20mi
19563 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$5,995	$2.98	25d	1	1.24mi
19527 Utopia Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	1852	$4,000	$2.16	25d	1	1.33mi
19824 Beechcrest Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$7,000	$3.18	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $494,999 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,999 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,999 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,999 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,999 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,999 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $494,999 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $494,999 Active 936 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $494,999 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,550
• − Property taxes: −$7,378
• − Insurance: −$2,459
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,872
• − Management: −$4,872
• − Depreciation: −$14,308
• Taxable loss: −$544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $7,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B