4900 N Highway 99 #147 · Morada, CA 95212

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 97 Days on market

Manufactured home likely 55+ (park) Built 1971 Good condition $88/sqft · 26% below area Est $128k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.4

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 2.8% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 327 students, 85% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.03%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,450
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -22.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N Hwy 99 #173	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	0mo	$95,000	$85	94
4900 N Highway 99 #273	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	1mo	$127,000	$122	88
5100 N Hwy 99 #27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	5mo	$166,500	$145	84
10780 N Highway 99 #45	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (+6%)	4mo	$57,000	$50	80
10780 N Hwy 99 #69	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	78
10780 N N Hwy 99 #6	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+11%)	15mo	$85,000	$71	61
5100 N Highway 99 #209	0.01mi	3/1.0	936 (-13%)	23mo	$124,000	$132	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $63,678
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $157,348
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $100,000 ($99/sqft)
• Median days on market: 174 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,306	-5% $1,273	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,208	+10% $1,175
Rent	-10% $1,051	-5% $1,146	+0% $1,241	+5% $1,336	+10% $1,430
Rate	-1.0pp $1,288	-0.5pp $1,265	base $1,241	+0.5pp $1,216	+1.0pp $1,191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3461 Sina Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,000	$2.25	139d	1	0.80mi
10400 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,500	$3.35	110d	1	0.94mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,291	$2.16	78d	1	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	117d	1	1.34mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$2,189	$2.65	0d	17	1.34mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$2,610	$2.07	0d	26	1.39mi
9326 Lembert Dome Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,645	$1.78	98d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source but excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public waterPrivate sewerIndividual electric meter220 volts available in laundryOther utility features
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide)Royal Home makeBuilt in 1971
• Construction: Composition roofVinyl skirtingOther construction materials
• Exterior features: Corner lotOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast areaKitchen islandSlab countertopsFree standing gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateLinoleumVinylOther flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansWindow units
• Interior features: Great room living areaPatio/porch (unspecified type)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $94,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $94,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $94,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $94,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $107,000 Active 70 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $107,000 Active 69 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $107,000 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $107,000 Active 67 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $107,000 Active 66 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $107,000 Active 65 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $107,000 Active 64 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $107,000 Active 63 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $107,000 Active 62 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $107,000 Active 61 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $107,000 Active 60 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $107,000 Active 59 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $107,000 Active 58 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $107,000 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $107,000 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $107,000 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $107,000 Active 54 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $107,000 Active 53 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $107,000 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $107,000 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $107,000 Active 50 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $107,000 Active 49 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $107,000 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $107,000 Active 47 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $107,000 Active 46 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 43 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $107,000 Active 42 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $107,000 Active 41 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $107,000 Active 40 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $14,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,414
• After-tax cash flow: $11,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,400–$16,200 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring hardwood floors, a well-maintained exterior, and a good foundation. Minor updates to the exterior trim and cleaning gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis Elementary F CA #1,335/1,571 Nat'l #35,051/41,679 Middle Morada Middle F CA #376/498 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Ronald E. Mcnair High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morada, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 796,965 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

---

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source but excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationNot a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public waterPrivate sewerIndividual electric meter220 volts available in laundryOther utility features
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide)Royal Home makeBuilt in 1971
• Construction: Composition roofVinyl skirtingOther construction materials
• Exterior features: Corner lotOther exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast areaKitchen islandSlab countertopsFree standing gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateLinoleumVinylOther flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansWindow units
• Interior features: Great room living areaPatio/porch (unspecified type)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area