18900 Nicklaus Dr · Point Venture, TX 78645

$220,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 323 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 910 sqft lot $191/sqft · 28% below area Est $304k · 28% under $230/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As a short-term rental, a weekend getaway, or your own full-time home, this townhome makes it ridiculously easy to say yes to the lake, yes to the golf course, and yes to a community that feels more like vacation than real life. The Point Venture lifestyle starts the moment you pull into your reserved parking spots and head toward this end-unit townhome that backs directly to the golf course. From here, every day feels like an vacation; rounds of golf in the morning, lake time in the afternoon, and a sunset drink at the Club. The question here isn’t whether you’ll have fun, but which option you’ll pick first. Inside, the main floor is open and bright, with sunlight sliding across tile floors and bouncing off neutral walls. The layout makes entertaining easy; kitchen, dining, and living all flow together. The kitchen offers a fantastic layout with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and a breakfast bar that practically begs for pancakes in the morning and drinks at night. Upstairs, you’ll find 2 comfortable bedrooms. One is simple and welcoming, while the other ups the game with direct access to a private balcony. Morning coffee tastes better when you’re watching golfers line up their shots with Lake Travis glimmering in the distance. It’s the kind of view that reminds you why people drive hours to vacation here, and you’ll have it right outside your own door. Slide open the back door and step onto a covered patio that opens straight to the course. It’s shaded, quiet, and makes you feel connected to the outdoors without ever leaving home. Grill dinner, sip wine, or just sit back and let the breeze roll in off the lake. The HOA doesn't just keeping things tidy, it unlocks access to resort-style perks: a private waterfront park with a boat ramp, sandy shoreline for lake days, a pool, tennis and pickleball courts, and a fitness center. You’ll find neighbors who love this lifestyle as much as you do, and you’ll quickly learn why so many people never want to leave.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Covered patio
• Sandy shoreline

Tags

• BACKS DIRECTLY TO GOLF COURSE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• COVERED PATIO
• ACCESS TO WATERFRONT PARK
• BOAT RAMP
• SANDY SHORELINE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (38.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in Point Venture — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#509 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1256 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,971 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.38%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,853
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -27.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18904 Nicklaus Dr	0.01mi	2/1.5	1,188 (+3%)	6mo	$230,000	$194	89
18802 Nicklaus Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,153 (+0%)	14mo	$278,950	$242	78
18804 Nicklaus Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,153 (+0%)	15mo	$279,000	$242	77
508 Palmer Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	23mo	$269,000	$216	57
512 Palmer Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	23mo	$269,000	$216	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-66,017
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-95,788
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $240,000 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 152 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1256
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,373/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $134,971

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-357	-5% $-419	+0% $-481	+5% $-544	+10% $-606
Rent	-10% $-634	-5% $-558	+0% $-481	+5% $-405	+10% $-329
Rate	-1.0pp $-371	-0.5pp $-425	base $-481	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,825	$1.47	93d	1	0.75mi
430 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,895	$1.49	47d	1	0.81mi
1 Madrone Estates CV Lakeway, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1117	$1,778	$1.59	9d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail $230/mo · $2,760/yr

• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $220,000 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $220,000 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $220,000 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $220,000 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $220,000 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $220,000 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $220,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $220,000 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $220,000 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $220,000 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $220,000 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $225,000 Active 304 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $225,000 Active 302 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $225,000 Active 301 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $225,000 Active 300 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $225,000 Active 299 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $225,000 Active 298 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,000 Active 297 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,000 Active 296 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $225,000 Active 295 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $225,000 Active 294 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 293 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 291 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,000 Active 290 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 289 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 287 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 286 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 285 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 284 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $225,000 Active 283 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $225,000 Active 282 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,000 Active 281 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $225,000 Active 280 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $225,000 Active 278 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $225,000 Active 276 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $225,000 Active 275 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $225,000 Active 272 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $225,000 Active 271 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $225,000 Active 270 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $225,000 Active 269 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $225,000 Active 267 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 263 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 262 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 261 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 258 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 257 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 256 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,373 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,373 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$6,373
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$9,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great location with golf course and lake views, making it ideal for both short-term rentals and full-time living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior stone facade — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Point Venture

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Venture, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-26 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-10-25 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2011-01-29 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-01-28 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,373 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.