26403 Cedar Sedge Dr · Tomball, TX 77355

$259,050

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,850 sqft · Land · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 5,505 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

May completion.

Key facts

• 5,505 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision lot (lot approx. 105 x 40, ~0.1264 acres); Concrete road access
• HOA & community: Association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Security: Pre-wired security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built 2026; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fully fenced backyard with back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 12'6" x 16'); Three additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 10' x 11', 10' x 10'7", 10' x 11'7"); Living areas and a breakfast nook on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($898/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,688 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-37,289
• Equity at exit: $38,625

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,647
• Equity at exit: $22,398

Cash invested: $72,534 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,042

Max offer price $259,050

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $148	+0% $75	+5% $1	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $-10	+0% $75	+5% $159	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $141	base $75	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,762
• Closing costs: $7,772
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $259,050 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,050 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,050 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,050 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,050 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,050 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,050 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   price $274,050 150-char remark
9. 2026-04-29
   listed $274,050 Active 15-char remark
10. 2026-04-15
    listed $291,040 Active 150-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,741 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,626/yr (+$302/mo · 325.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,511
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,536
• Taxable loss: −$3,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $259,050 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $274,050 HARMLS