352 Turtle Creek Dr · Winder, GA 30680

$235,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2018 1,542 sqft lot Est $284k · 17% under $110/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Kitchen features pantry & all appiliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/ walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

Key facts

• Townhouse
• Tennis
• Greenspace

Tags

• TOWNHOUSE
• N'HOOD SWIM
• TENNIS
• CLUBHOUSE
• SIDEWALKS
• GREENSPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.9% in Winder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#47 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kennedy Elementary School (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #509 of 1,228 statewide, top 42%, 928 students, 60% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,171 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,256
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1734 Snapping Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$173	92
540 Fort St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+3%)	8mo	$276,000	$178	82
526 Lois Ln	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,643 (+9%)	14mo	$310,000	$189	63
528 Lois Ln	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,518 (+1%)	22mo	$295,000	$194	63
463 Valley Trce	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-5%)	20mo	$285,000	$199	62
563 Cotton Creek Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+6%)	22mo	$350,000	$220	56
19 Parkview Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+8%)	19mo	$125,000	$77	53
63 Matthews School Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-15%)	22mo	$239,000	$187	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,027
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,159
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30680

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,426/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $235	+0% $168	+5% $101	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $77	+0% $168	+5% $259	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $228	base $168	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
370 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	3.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	4d	1	0.01mi
370 Turtle Creek Dr Unit 1 Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	6d	1	0.01mi
349 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1494	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	0.05mi
290 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	3d	1	0.05mi
281 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,700	$2.06	44d	1	0.08mi
247 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,885	$1.23	5d	1	0.09mi
420 Foxdale Rd Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,885	$1.25	44d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $235,010 Closed 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

2. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $235,010 Sold 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

3. 2026-04-01
   status Under Contract 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

4. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

5. 2026-03-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

6. 2026-03-26
   status Pending Offer Approval 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

7. 2026-02-26
   listed $235,000 Active 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

8. 2026-02-26
   listed $235,000 New 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

9. 2026-02-26
   listed $235,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   3BD 2.5BA 2-Story Townhouse in sought-after Turtle Creek Villas, N'hood Swim/Tennis/Clubhouse/Sidewalks/Greenspace, Open Kitchen features pantry & all apliances, 1/2 bath & 1-car garage on Main, Spacious Primary BD w/walk-in closet, Sep tub/shower in Primary bath, 2 spacious secondary BDs, Laundry up, Gas log fireplace in living room & private patio. HUD homes are Sold As Is, FHA Insurable, and qualifies for HUD's $100 down program! HUD case# 106-397439

10. 2025-09-30
    historical
11. 2025-09-30
    historical
12. 2025-09-03
    status Back On Market
13. 2025-08-29
    status Active
14. 2025-08-04
    status Active
15. 2025-06-19
    status Pending
16. 2025-06-18
    status Under Contract
17. 2025-06-10
    historical On Hold
18. 2025-04-25
    price $269,900
19. 2025-04-25
    price $269,900
20. 2024-12-04
    listed $279,900 Active
21. 2024-12-04
    listed $279,900 New
22. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $260,000
23. 2021-11-17
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
24. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus $250,000 Sold
25. 2021-10-14
    status Pending
26. 2021-10-14
    status Under Contract
27. 2021-10-07
    status Active
28. 2021-10-04
    status Active
29. 2021-10-04
    historical
30. 2021-10-04
    status Pending
31. 2021-10-04
    status Under Contract
32. 2021-10-04
    status Active
33. 2021-10-02
    historical
34. 2021-10-01
    status Active
35. 2021-09-20
    status Under Contract
36. 2021-09-20
    status Pending
37. 2021-09-09
    listed $239,900 Active
38. 2021-09-09
    listed $239,900 New
39. 2013-06-14
    soldstatus $129,800
40. 2011-01-06
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,426 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,426 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,426
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $2,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Winder

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #5120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winder, GA
• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 48,388
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 48,388
• Household income: $80,956
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.21%
• Current HPI: 229.5804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+3816.8% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $235,010 GAMLS
• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $235,010 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $235,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $235,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-08-29 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-06-19 Pending — FMLS
• 2025-06-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-06-10 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $269,900 FMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $269,900 GAMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $279,900 GAMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $279,900 FMLS
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $250,000 FMLS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) $250,000 GAMLS
• 2021-10-14 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-10-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-10-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-10-04 Relisted — FMLS
• 2021-10-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-10-04 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-10-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-10-04 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-10-01 Relisted — FMLS
• 2021-09-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-09-20 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $239,900 FMLS
• 2013-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $129,800 Public Records
• 2011-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,426 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.