2401 W Southern Ave #194 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 265 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $70k · 21% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adorable 2 Bed, 2 Bath Home in The Meadows! This lovely, spacious, open-concept great room combines the kitchen and dining areas for a seamless experience. The beautiful kitchen features stainless steel appliances and updated lighting, along with new cabinets and countertops. The home also includes a newer air conditioner, furnace, and water heater. The bathrooms have new surrounds, tubs, and bases, as well as updated bath and light fixtures, and ceramic tile floors with detailed accents. Outside, you can enjoy a lovely west-facing patio with stairs leading to the front door, along with a storage shed off the carport for added convenience.

Key facts

• New cabinets
• Storage shed
• West-facing patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETS
• NEWER AIR CONDITIONER
• WEST-FACING PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease amount $988 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; No visible trucks/trailers/RVs/boats allowed; Community pool and heated spa; Community media room; Fitness center; Biking/walking path; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Separate storage area; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Guarded entry; Concierge
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Gas stub for range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Full bath in master bedroom; Accessible approach with ramp; Storage (interior)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ward Traditional Academy (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 377 students, 25% FRL); Geneva Epps Mosley Middle School (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 755 students, 72% FRL); Tempe High School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #258 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,584 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.08%
• DSCR: 4.87
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2401 W Southern Ave #481	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$45,000	$36	89
2609 W Southern Ave #379	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,180 (-5%)	1mo	$135,000	$114	82
2609 W Southern Ave #335	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	12mo	$76,000	$61	81
2609 W Southern Ave #398	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$17,500	$13	78
2609 W Southern Ave #441	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	77
2609 W Southern Ave #90	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$38,000	$28	76
2401 W Southern Ave #113	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	5mo	$86,000	$64	74
2609 W Southern Ave #117	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	9mo	$125,000	$109	71
2401 W Southern Ave #204	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	9mo	$69,900	$62	70
2609 W Southern Ave #201	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	14mo	$65,000	$56	67
2609 W Southern Ave #108	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	2mo	$55,000	$49	66
2609 W Southern Ave #221	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	13mo	$75,500	$56	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $56,736
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.77×
• Total profit: $119,701
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $1,118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,156	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,118	+5% $1,099	+10% $1,080
Rent	-10% $968	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,118	+5% $1,192	+10% $1,267
Rate	-1.0pp $1,145	-0.5pp $1,132	base $1,118	+0.5pp $1,103	+1.0pp $1,089

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1812 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,075	$1.81	3d	1	0.34mi
1818 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1148	$2,150	$1.87	12d	1	0.34mi
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	0d	1	0.41mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2357 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,199	$1.52	19d	1	0.45mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2365 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.60	0d	1	0.45mi
2348 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	18d	1	0.45mi
4365 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	0d	1	0.46mi
2349 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,030	$1.45	0d	1	0.46mi
4389 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,150	$1.54	0d	1	0.48mi
3226 S Albert Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	0d	1	0.53mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,808	$2.05	0d	28	0.55mi
2150 W Alameda Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.5	1155	$1,899	$1.64	23d	1	0.58mi
2326 W Carson Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,925	$1.83	0d	1	0.58mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	0d	1	0.60mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	3d	1	0.60mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	4d	1	0.60mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	3d	1	0.68mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	12d	1	0.68mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	0d	1	0.68mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	0.68mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	3d	3	0.78mi
4901 S Calle Los Cerros Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,995	$2.30	0d	3	0.78mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	0d	20	0.91mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,901	$2.00	12d	19	0.91mi
4328 E Saint Catherine Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	0d	1	0.95mi
4312 E Burgess Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,675	$1.63	0d	1	1.01mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	16d	1	1.02mi
7027 S 43rd Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,200	$1.83	25d	1	1.12mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,196	$2.26	5d	2	1.13mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,695	$2.38	0d	12	1.13mi
4163 E Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,999	$1.69	16d	1	1.13mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,532	$1.65	0d	52	1.14mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	0d	1	1.19mi
951 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,500	$2.53	0d	1	1.20mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	0d	1	1.21mi
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,799	$2.14	0d	19	1.31mi
1330 W Broadway Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$1,222	$1.66	0d	13	1.31mi
633 W Southern Ave #1147 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	12d	1	1.32mi
4514 E Riverside St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1008	$995	$0.99	0d	1	1.36mi
4615 E Jones Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-04-24
   price $60,000
3. 2026-01-08
   price $65,000
4. 2025-11-18
   price $67,000
5. 2025-10-24
   price $69,000
6. 2025-09-08
   listed $71,000 Active
7. 2025-06-01
   historical
8. 2025-05-10
   price $69,500
9. 2025-04-23
   price $71,000
10. 2025-04-21
    price $69,000
11. 2025-03-31
    price $73,000
12. 2025-03-17
    price $73,400
13. 2025-02-16
    price $74,400
14. 2025-02-08
    price $74,900
15. 2025-02-01
    price $75,900
16. 2025-01-28
    price $76,000
17. 2025-01-13
    price $77,000
18. 2024-12-27
    price $77,500
19. 2024-11-29
    listed $78,000 Active
20. 2024-06-12
    historical
21. 2024-06-08
    status Active
22. 2024-06-08
    historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale
23. 2024-05-14
    price $80,000
24. 2024-05-04
    price $82,310
25. 2024-04-27
    price $82,319
26. 2024-04-18
    price $82,400
27. 2024-04-11
    price $82,401
28. 2024-03-28
    price $82,409
29. 2024-03-21
    price $82,490
30. 2024-03-14
    listed $82,500 Active
31. 2024-02-29
    historical
32. 2024-02-24
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $13,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,199
• After-tax cash flow: $10,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $67,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $71,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $69,500 ARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $71,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $73,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $73,400 ARMLS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $74,400 ARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $75,900 ARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $76,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $77,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $77,500 ARMLS
• 2024-11-29 Listed $78,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $82,310 ARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $82,319 ARMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $82,400 ARMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $82,401 ARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $82,409 ARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $82,490 ARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed $82,500 ARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Listed $79,900 ARMLS