3321 Cobbler Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2006 1.17 ac lot Est $235k · 26% under ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country Living with Room to Roam! Situated on 1.17 acres in Joshua, this charming property offers the freedom and flexibility you've been looking for. Featuring a manufactured home with approximately 1,400 square feet of living space, two storage sheds, and plenty of open land, this property is ideal for those seeking a peaceful rural lifestyle. Enjoy space for animals, outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements while remaining conveniently located near Joshua, Burleson, Godley and the Chisholm Trail Parkway. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or simply looking for a place to spread out and enjoy country living, this property is full of potential.

Key facts

• Open land
• Space for animals
• Manufactured home

Tags

• 1.17 ACRES
• MANUFACTURED HOME
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• OPEN LAND
• SPACE FOR ANIMALS
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.171 acres; Easements: None; Will not subdivide; Parcel number available
• Financial info: No second mortgage; Loan type treated as clear
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Aggregate parking surface
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Co-op electric; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached; Accessible approach with ramp; Built in 2006; Subdivision: Blackberry Spgs Ph 01; Facing/directions available: From Chisholm Trail Pkwy, take FM 917 west toward Joshua. Turn left on CR 1020, then right onto Cobbler Lane. Continue to 3321 Cobbler Lane on the right.
• Construction: Year built 2006
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with gate; Barbed wire fence; Acreage lot with few trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: No flooring details listed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; One level
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rb Godley El (511 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Berry Patch Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	15mo	$245,000	$168	44
6500 Berry Grove Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	4mo	$210,000	$134	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,065
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $29,947
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,367/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 676-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,367 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$835/yr (+$70/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,367
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$500
• After-tax cash flow: $4,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-46.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $326,575 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,367 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.