20870 Wildbird Cherry Ln · Porter Heights, TX 77365

$257,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 $163/sqft · at area comps Est $248k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20870 Wildbird Cherry Ln, Porter, TX 77365; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $257,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Bridgeport plan); Spec new construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,582 (interior size)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($451/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,363 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,635
• List price: $257,900
• Delta: 4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20894 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	0mo	$254,900	$161	98
20887 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	2mo	$242,900	$154	96
20903 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	2mo	$249,900	$158	95
20919 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	3mo	$259,900	$164	93
16359 Airborne Arch Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,582 (0%)	1mo	$255,900	$162	73
20883 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+13%)	3mo	$269,900	$151	73
20907 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+13%)	2mo	$269,900	$151	71
20899 Wildbird Cherry Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	3mo	$214,900	$155	70
16714 Brighter Blooms Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	3mo	$219,900	$158	67
16707 Holly St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	2mo	$239,900	$173	66
20290 Youpon Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	2mo	$299,000	$185	59
16355 Airborne Arch Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	2mo	$214,900	$155	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,450
• Equity at exit: $38,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-46,073
• Equity at exit: $22,298

Cash invested: $72,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,352
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,868/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,256

Max offer price $257,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $127	+0% $38	+5% $-52	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-53	+0% $38	+5% $129	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $103	base $38	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,475
• Closing costs: $7,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16658 Moss Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	26d	1	0.24mi
21019 Voyage Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $257,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $257,900 Active 431-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,446
• − Property taxes: −$3,868
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$7,503
• Taxable loss: −$3,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $1,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter Heights, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B