21618 Carbonari Dr · Houston, TX 77377

$272,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite Elevated; Community amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courts; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining room combined; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $272,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,217.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,373 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,217
• List price: $272,990
• Delta: -17.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22202 San Lioni Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	96
19307 Licola Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+4%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	94
22011 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+4%)	1mo	$296,990	$183	93
21647 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+4%)	1mo	$330,990	$202	90
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+4%)	1mo	$284,990	$174	88
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	85
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+5%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	85
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+1%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	80
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+11%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	78
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	75
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+12%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	71
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-4%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-115,995
• Equity at exit: $51,771

10-year hold

• IRR: -83.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.99×
• Total profit: $-193,788
• Equity at exit: $30,021

Cash invested: $97,221 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,208/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-841

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,208

Max offer price $225,524

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,804
• Closing costs: $10,417
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	21d	1	0.20mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,951	$1.02	1d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	1d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,931	$0.91	5d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	2d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	1d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	1d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 576-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,990 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,990 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $272,990 Active 26 DOM

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,840 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,840 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,840 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,840 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,840 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,840 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,840 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $285,840 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,450
• − Property taxes: −$5,208
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$10,101
• Taxable loss: −$16,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,961
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $272,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $285,840 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $285,840 Zillow