2933 Forebay Rd #10 · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1986 4.25 ac lot Est $58k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * New price * * * Let's get this sold! This well-maintained and recently updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home offers comfort and style in a compact, efficient layout. Covered parking and a large storage shed add to the desirability of this lovingly maintained home! Located directly across from the community pool and clubhouse, this home combines convenience with charm. Recent upgrades include new (2025) furnace, all new vinyl windows/screens(2024), fresh interior paint, updated wallpaper accents, and new flooring in both bedrooms. The bathroom features a new toilet and shower, and the kitchen includes a new refrigerator. With its cozy layout and thoughtful updates throughout, th

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• NEW VINYL WINDOWS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a park close to the clubhouse; Directions available to park office
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source data but treated as not applicable)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; Electric: other
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide) in park; Skyline manufactured unit; Wood skirting; Built in 1986; Updated/remodeled; Porch entry
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Close to clubhouse; Storage / shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Shower stall(s); Low-flow toilet(s)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with wall furnace; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dual-pane windows with screens; Porch steps, covered deck with railings; Storage area / shed on property; Family room, kitchen, master bedroom (total 4 rooms); Dining bar; Laminate counters in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.02%
• DSCR: 4.78
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,072
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2933 Forebay Rd #6	0.01mi	2/2.0	900 (-6%)	5mo	$40,000	$44	82
2933 Forebay Rd #28	0.04mi	2/2.0	890 (-6%)	4mo	$54,500	$61	80
2933 Forebay Rd #14	0.02mi	2/1.0	896 (-6%)	15mo	$35,000	$39	77
4 Axle	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+10%)	19mo	$125,000	$119	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $60,582
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.24×
• Total profit: $142,238
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $295/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $425

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,122	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,076	+10% $1,060
Rent	-10% $948	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,162	+10% $1,234
Rate	-1.0pp $1,119	-0.5pp $1,105	base $1,091	+0.5pp $1,077	+1.0pp $1,062

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6396 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	2d	1	0.24mi
2893 Polaris St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,100	$2.41	2d	1	0.42mi
2988 Bonanza St Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	4d	1	0.62mi
2988 Bonanza St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	5d	1	0.62mi
6216 Spruce Ave Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,750	$1.75	2d	1	0.63mi
6001 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,300	$3.15	2d	1	1.15mi
5900 Pony Express Trl Unit 14 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	2d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $295 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $418 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 41.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$295
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $12,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,110
• After-tax cash flow: $9,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $295 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.