951 Lake Adventure Dr Lot 951 · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $262/sqft · 153% above area $233/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Memorial Day is Coming!! The Summer Season is Almost Here!!!Looking for the Most Economical Way to Own a Vacation Home in the Poconos? Then this is for You!!! Located in a Popular Amenity Filled Vacation Community This Owned Lot Comes with a Well Maintained, Practically New Park Model that Features 2 Bedrooms, Full Size Sleeping Loft with Plenty of Room to Accommodate 4, A Full Size Bathroom, Eat in Kitchen (with full size appliances / Living Room Combo and New Full Length 3 Season Room that practically Doubles livable space. All appliances and Furniture included as well. Community Amenities include lakes and beaches, an outdoor pool, clubhouse, mini golf, tennis courts, community events,

Key facts

• Full size bathroom
• Community amenities
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED PARK MODEL
• FULL SIZE SLEEPING LOFT
• FULL SIZE BATHROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• NEW FULL LENGTH 3 SEASON ROOM
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.12 acres; Roads: mix of dirt and paved; private maintained road with unimproved road frontage; Zoned Commercial; Community is gated and includes lake access
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee and additional one-time fee; Association amenities include beach access, pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, playground, security, and other community features; Association fees cover electricity, security, water, and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; Unpaved parking
• Security: 24-hour security and gated with guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property used for recreational, vacant, or single-family purposes; Vacation RV/Trailer subtype; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed, screened side porch; Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen equipped with gas oven, gas range, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes living space and bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Gas oven, Gas range, Microwave, Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.10%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,520
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 152.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Glenwood Landing Lndg	0.40mi	2/1.0	407 (+2%)	3mo	$36,457	$90	76
102 Lake Dr N #1772	0.24mi	2/1.0	385 (-4%)	8mo	$91,500	$238	76
131 Bobcat Dr	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-1)	399 (-0%)	4mo	$84,000	$211	76
121 Birchy Brook Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	340 (-15%)	3mo	$36,000	$106	69
126 Deer Run	0.58mi	2/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$109,000	$273	65
120 Forest Glen Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	0mo	$40,000	$100	64
216 Village Dr W	0.28mi	2/1.0	345 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$180	59
224 Locust Lake Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	360 (-10%)	2mo	$40,000	$111	58
120 Crescent Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	392 (-2%)	8mo	$37,000	$94	57
104 Glenwood Lndg	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	340 (-15%)	0mo	$11,000	$32	51
140 Blue Aspen Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	350 (-12%)	9mo	$24,000	$69	42
165 Deer Run	0.73mi	2/1.0	353 (-12%)	7mo	$55,500	$157	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,588
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $30,118
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $357	+0% $321	+5% $285	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $257	+0% $321	+5% $385	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $348	base $321	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $105,000 Active 1006-char remark
17. 2025-10-23
    status Active
18. 2025-09-25
    price $105,000
19. 2025-05-22
    price $109,000
20. 2025-04-19
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$598
• After-tax cash flow: $3,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Upgrading the interior and exterior can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring can enhance the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Updating the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the exterior siding — Upgrading the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Landscaping the front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring can enhance the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Updating the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the exterior siding — Upgrading the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Landscaping the front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $105,000 PWMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $105,000 PWMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $109,000 PWMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $119,000 PWMLS