9999 County Road 2884 · Marlin, TX 76661

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1950 Poor condition 0.54 ac lot $27/sqft · 38% below area Est $56k · 38% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on a half acre this house sits just off Business Hwy 6. With repairss it could be a comfortable semi-rual homestead. See the related MLS Number 20769520.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 213 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marlin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 474 students, 99% FRL); Marlin Middle (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 201 students, 100% FRL); Marlin High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,612 of 1,632 statewide, top 99%, 243 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.01%
• DSCR: 4.60
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,018
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -37.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 San Antonio St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (+8%)	10mo	$49,000	$35	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $48,587
• Equity at exit: $18,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.36×
• Total profit: $111,340
• Equity at exit: $29,879

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $674	+0% $662	+5% $650	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $616	+0% $662	+5% $707	+10% $752
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $671	base $662	+0.5pp $653	+1.0pp $643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,000 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 192 DOM
17. 2025-11-19
    listed $35,000 Active 162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (162 chars)

    Located on a half acre this house sits just off Business Hwy 6. With repairss it could be a comfortable semi-rual homestead. See the related MLS Number 20769520.

18. 2025-10-27
    historical
19. 2024-11-02
    listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,884
• After-tax cash flow: $6,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and exterior work to become habitable. Significant structural and aesthetic improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior walls — Severe deterioration and missing siding
• Major roof — Visible damage and potential water infiltration
• Major flooring — Not visible, but overall condition suggests significant damage
• Major interior walls/paint — Not visible, but exterior suggests significant damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can attract potential buyers or renters
• Both exterior repairs — Repairing the exterior walls and roof can significantly increase the home's value
• Both interior repairs — Repairing the interior walls and flooring can improve the home's livability and attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior walls · Severe deterioration and missing siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Visible damage and potential water infiltration	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Not visible, but overall condition suggests significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Not visible, but exterior suggests significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can attract potential buyers or renters ↑
• Both exterior repairs — Repairing the exterior walls and roof can significantly increase the home's value ↑
• Both interior repairs — Repairing the interior walls and flooring can improve the home's livability and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-11-02 Listed $35,000 NTREIS