1114 Mustang Trl · Houston, TX 77339

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1967 0.34 ac lot $137/sqft · 18% below area Est $291k · 18% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming two-story home is nestled in Kingwood, famously known as the "Livable Forest" for its lush greenery. Featuring three spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, the property offers a functional layout designed for comfort. The main living area serves as a focal point with soaring vaulted ceilings, striking exposed wood beams, and a cozy fireplace. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the common areas, while the kitchen is equipped with updated granite countertops and sleek dark cabinetry. The exterior is equally impressive, situated on an expansive lot of nearly 15,000 square feet. The fenced backyard provides a private retreat shaded by mature trees. Residents enjoy being minutes away from over 75 miles of scenic greenbelt trails and the shores of Lake Houston. With easy access to Highway 59, Kingwood Town Center, and highly-regarded schools, this home presents a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a peaceful, community-focused lifestyle while remaining close to city amenities.

Key facts

• Dark cabinetry
• Exposed wood beams
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DARK CABINETRY
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foster El (math 42% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 559 students, 50% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 32% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $240k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,769 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,104
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -17.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1710 Laurel Springs Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+2%)	5mo	$173,000	$97	65
2102 Master Way Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-8%)	13mo	$308,998	$192	54
1011 Fairway Farms Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,964 (+12%)	9mo	$275,000	$140	53
1622 Laurel Springs Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,756 (+0%)	17mo	$249,990	$142	52
1102 Burning Tree Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+6%)	12mo	$309,000	$167	52
1519 Sandy Park Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,989 (+13%)	3mo	$290,000	$146	50
1911 Eastwood Lake Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,825 (+4%)	12mo	$272,500	$149	50
434 Laurel Sage Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-9%)	7mo	$239,900	$150	48
1611 Trail Oaks Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+11%)	12mo	$275,000	$141	46
523 Trail Springs Drive Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (+13%)	10mo	$279,000	$140	45
1707 Rustic Park Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,957 (+12%)	6mo	$309,000	$158	42
1015 Masters Way	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,007 (+14%)	16mo	$340,000	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-28,757
• Equity at exit: $75,436

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,406
• Equity at exit: $95,426

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,793/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,357

Max offer price $179,769

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-205	-5% $-272	+0% $-340	+5% $-408	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-416	+0% $-340	+5% $-264	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-279	base $-340	+0.5pp $-403	+1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1615 Trail Oaks Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,825	$1.20	19d	1	0.52mi
938 Kingwood Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,765	$1.89	45d	44	0.67mi
1735 Wilderness Park Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,319	$1.07	26d	1	0.70mi
2003 Ridgeway Park Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2477	$1,850	$0.75	45d	1	0.72mi
410 Laurel Sage Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	1744	$2,000	$1.15	1d	1	0.73mi
2109 Lake Village Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,585	$1.26	45d	1	1.05mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	45d	1	1.06mi
21476 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,899	$1.08	1d	1	1.06mi
21504 Palace Pines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$2,100	$0.93	7d	1	1.08mi
27600 Kings Manor Dr N Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,784	$1.41	13d	1	1.35mi
150 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,412	$2.27	1d	19	1.37mi
27600 Kings Manor Dr N Unit 3112 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,733	$1.37	1d	1	1.37mi
27600 Kings Manor Dr N Unit 3174 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,773	$1.40	12d	1	1.37mi
27600 Kings Manor Dr N Unit 27633 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,026	$1.60	45d	1	1.37mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	24d	1	1.45mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	45d	1	1.45mi
206 Kellington Dr Unit 5201 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,275	$1.02	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $239,900 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    This charming two-story home is nestled in Kingwood, famously known as the "Livable Forest" for its lush greenery. Featuring three spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, the property offers a functional layout designed for comfort. The main living area serves as a focal point with soaring vaulted ceilings, striking exposed wood beams, and a cozy fireplace. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the common areas, while the kitchen is equipped with updated granite countertops and sleek dark cabinetry. The exterior is equally impressive, situated on an expansive lot of nearly 15,000 square feet. The fenced backyard provides a private retreat shaded by mature trees. Residents enjoy being minutes away from over 75 miles of scenic greenbelt trails and the shores of Lake Houston. With easy access to Highway 59, Kingwood Town Center, and highly-regarded schools, this home presents a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a peaceful, community-focused lifestyle while remaining close to city amenities.

17. 2018-08-29
    soldstatus
18. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus
19. 2011-03-30
    soldstatus 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Multiple offers received. Accepted the highest and best offer. Thanks so much for the interest. THIS IS A GREAT HOME THAT NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PERFECT FOR INVESTORS. GREAT LOCATION IN UPFRONT KINGWOOD,NEAR GOLF COURSE AND SHOPPING. HUGE LOT, LOTS OF ROOM FOR THE KIDS TO PLAY. HOME NEEDS TOTAL REHAB.

20. 2011-01-08
    historical 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Multiple offers received. Accepted the highest and best offer. Thanks so much for the interest. THIS IS A GREAT HOME THAT NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PERFECT FOR INVESTORS. GREAT LOCATION IN UPFRONT KINGWOOD,NEAR GOLF COURSE AND SHOPPING. HUGE LOT, LOTS OF ROOM FOR THE KIDS TO PLAY. HOME NEEDS TOTAL REHAB.

21. 2011-01-03
    listed $48,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Multiple offers received. Accepted the highest and best offer. Thanks so much for the interest. THIS IS A GREAT HOME THAT NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PERFECT FOR INVESTORS. GREAT LOCATION IN UPFRONT KINGWOOD,NEAR GOLF COURSE AND SHOPPING. HUGE LOT, LOTS OF ROOM FOR THE KIDS TO PLAY. HOME NEEDS TOTAL REHAB.

22. 1989-06-30
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,793 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,793 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$5,793
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$8,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+320.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-01-03 Listed $48,000 HARMLS
• 1989-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,793 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.