1114 Hudson Harbor Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$378,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,601 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 9,348 sqft lot $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This Flag-shaped lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

Key facts

• Covered lanai
• Flex room
• Open concept layout

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED LANAI
• FLEX ROOM
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service - Mark; annual fee required (approximately $979.44 / $81.62 monthly); Deed-restricted community with street lights; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; Under construction (projected completion Aug 14, 2026); Northwest facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by D.R. Horton (Hayden model); Permit BR-2025-7234
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Metered irrigation/sprinkler system; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen/family room combo and living/dining room combo; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface and stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-818 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (31.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $379k implies a 2129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,116 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-93,238
• Equity at exit: $82,855

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-143,356
• Equity at exit: $79,849

Cash invested: $106,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,987
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,685/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,576

Max offer price $260,652

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-556	-5% $-687	+0% $-818	+5% $-949	+10% $-1,080
Rent	-10% $-1,019	-5% $-918	+0% $-818	+5% $-717	+10% $-617
Rate	-1.0pp $-627	-0.5pp $-721	base $-818	+0.5pp $-916	+1.0pp $-1,016

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,748
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2227 Rock Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2931	$2,850	$0.97	24d	1	0.31mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	24d	1	0.36mi
1174 N Platte Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2308	$2,400	$1.04	15d	1	0.36mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	15d	1	0.38mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.40mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	24d	1	0.42mi
1413 Nelson Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2806	$2,500	$0.89	15d	1	0.54mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	12d	1	0.62mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.63mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	3d	1	0.68mi
999 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2676	$1,950	$0.73	24d	1	0.74mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	3d	1	0.89mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.93mi
3630 Walking Stick Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$2,150	$1.08	24d	1	0.94mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	3d	10	1.01mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	1.10mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	1.11mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	24d	1	1.16mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	3d	1	1.17mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	15d	1	1.23mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	1.25mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	3d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $378,990 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $378,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $378,990 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $378,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $378,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $378,990 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $378,990 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $378,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $378,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $378,990 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,990 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $378,990 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $378,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $378,990 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $378,990 Active
16. 2025-10-23
    soldstatus $17,000 Closed 1193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

    Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This Flag-shaped lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

17. 2025-10-23
    soldstatus $205,640

    Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

    Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This Flag-shaped lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

18. 2024-03-16
    status Pending 1193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

    Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This Flag-shaped lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

19. 2024-01-18
    listed $17,000 Active 1193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1193 chars)

    Discover the potential of this residential lot, perfectly situated for your dream home in the rapidly expanding Poinciana community. This Flag-shaped lot property is primed for construction, offering you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. This lot is being offered in As Is condition, forming part of a remarkable 30-lot portfolio that the seller is eager to share. Whether you're an individual buyer envisioning your dream home or an investor ready to contribute to the growth of Poinciana, this opportunity is tailor-made for you. The seller welcomes the possibility of selling individual lots, or in convenient bundles of 5, 10, 15, 20, or the entire 30-lot package. This flexibility ensures that you can tailor your investment to suit your preferences and goals. Whether you're a builder with a vision or an investor ready to seize this golden opportunity, don't miss out! Contact us today for additional information and take the first step towards building a brighter future in Poinciana. Poinciana features great amenities like a community pool, club house, sports fields, recreation center, fitness trails, dog parks, parks, and lakes to enjoy fishing with family and friends.

20. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus $289,900
21. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $88,000
22. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $54,000
23. 2020-02-10
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2018-10-31
    historical
25. 2018-10-24
    price $24,000
26. 2018-07-13
    listed $24,500 Active
27. 2018-05-31
    historical
28. 2018-03-12
    listed $22,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,229
• − Property taxes: −$5,685
• − Insurance: −$3,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,440
• − Management: −$2,440
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$16,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,007
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1622.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $378,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $205,640 Public Records
• 2025-10-23 Sold (MLS) $17,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Listed $17,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $289,900 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-24 Price Changed $24,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-13 Listed $24,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-12 Listed $22,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $580 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.