2120 Shade Tree Dr · Conway, AR 72032

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $228k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quality brick home located on a quiet cul de sac street, sitting on 1.57 acres +-

Key facts

• Brick home
• Quiet cul de sac
• 1.57 acres

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• 1.57 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-157/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $220k implies a 1058% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,079 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,505
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 Navaho Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+5%)	2mo	$237,500	$144	75
1916 Wigwam Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (0%)	15mo	$228,000	$145	74
425 Cheyenne Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+7%)	4mo	$255,500	$152	74
20 Hallous St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-4%)	12mo	$242,000	$161	69
2130 Shade Tree Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	7mo	$249,744	$142	68
355 Navajo Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+6%)	6mo	$270,000	$162	67
2165 Apache Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (-2%)	13mo	$194,000	$127	67
1906 Arrowhead Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (-10%)	2mo	$221,000	$156	64
605 Milam Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (-1%)	13mo	$175,000	$113	61
29 Gregory Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+6%)	6mo	$245,000	$148	50
1012 Woodside	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,720 (+10%)	3mo	$190,000	$110	48
41 Frances Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,519 (-3%)	19mo	$214,000	$141	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-39,547
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-47,638
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72032

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $217,689

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1425 Ola St Conway, AR	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,600	$2.05	23d	1	1.03mi
2010 RichSmith Ln Conway, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,105	$1.09	14d	10	1.14mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $220,000
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 1998-10-27
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$925/yr (+$77/mo · 191.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 0504590
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 38.27/100
• National rank: #4236
• State rank: #36 of 238 in AR

Livability — Conway

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #8673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conway, AR
• County: Faulkner County · 103,634 people
• City population: 84,754
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 34,469
• Household income: $64,695
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 916.0

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.15%
• Current HPI: 234.6331
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1057.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $230,000 FSBO.com
• 1998-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · -17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.