3431 S Pacific Hwy Spc 95 · Medford, OR 97501

$76,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1974 $50/sqft · 31% below area Est $111k · 31% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55 + Mobile Community in South Medford. Nicely landscaped yard and surroundings for your outdoor enjoyment. Low maintenance yard work with beautiful parklike common areas on both side of the home for your outdoor living enjoyment. Many interior upgrades including all new flooring and bathroom remodel. 2 nice sized outdoor storages areas, 2 separate dining areas or a possible family room. Tandem carport and street parking.

Key facts

• Interior upgrades
• New flooring
• Bathroom remodel

Tags

• LANDSCAPED YARD
• PARKLIKE COMMON AREAS
• INTERIOR UPGRADES
• NEW FLOORING
• BATHROOM REMODEL
• OUTDOOR STORAGES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $850 per month; Property is not currently rented
• HOA & community: CCRs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway
• Security: No audio or video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Utility easements present
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a park; One level; May remain in park; On leased land
• Construction: Built in 1974; Block and pier/pillar foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl window frames; Smoke detectors; Enclosed porch/patio; Shed(s), storage, and workshop; Adjoins public lands; Drip irrigation system; Garden; Landscaped; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (includes a primary bedroom and a second primary)
• Flooring: Laminate; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Fiberglass stall shower; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Accessible bedroom, closets, doors, entrance, and full bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 78% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $529 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,205 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.07%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,065
• List price: $76,500
• Delta: -31.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $56,094
• Equity at exit: $11,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $134,440
• Equity at exit: $6,614

Cash invested: $21,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$401
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $431/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $76,500

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,125
• Closing costs: $2,295
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Olympic Ave Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	43d	1	1.35mi
3126 Alameda St Medford, OR	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,100	$1.22	13d	1	1.41mi
889 Morrison Ave Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,495	$1.51	21d	1	1.43mi
2453 Republic Way Medford, OR	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,200	$1.33	43d	1	1.47mi
3141 Alameda St Medford, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$1,925	$1.43	13d	6	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $76,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $76,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,500 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,500 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $76,500 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $92,500 Active 426-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $431 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 72.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,285
• − Property taxes: −$431
• − Insurance: −$382
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − Depreciation: −$2,225
• Taxable income: $12,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $10,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $76,500 MLSCO
• 2026-05-14 Listed $92,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $431 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.